***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.8 25.8 25.7 -1.7 30.6 33.1 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.4 25.8 25.8 -1.9 33.1 32.6 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 24.5 24.6 25.1 -2.4 24.9 27.3 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 17.6 18.1 22.9 -1.9 23.7 28.3 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 24.7 24.2 23.1 -2.5 21.1 24.6 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 23.3 23.3 20.9 -2.0 25.4 27.6 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 24.5 25.3 25.8 -1.8 33.1 33.9 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 13.0 12.6 20.9 -2.6 20.2 24.5 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 24.1 23.5 24.0 -2.5 20.5 25.1 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 24.3 24.0 21.7 -2.8 18.5 22.9 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 24.4 24.0 22.8 -2.4 21.2 24.8 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 24.0 24.3 22.3 -2.1 23.6 28.4 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 24.6 24.8 22.6 -1.9 26.5 29.6 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 24.2 22.2 22.7 -3.4 12.9 20.4 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 25.5 26.6 25.8 -1.2 34.9 34.9 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 24.8 25.3 23.0 -2.0 23.3 28.6 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 23.6 24.3 25.1 -2.3 27.3 29.5 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 23.4 22.4 20.3 -3.4 13.5 19.3 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 24.0 24.6 25.6 -2.1 31.4 30.9 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 18.9 18.4 18.2 -3.4 15.8 19.3 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 24.3 24.2 24.8 -2.5 22.1 25.6 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 24.2 24.1 24.7 -2.5 24.9 27.4 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 24.4 24.7 24.9 -2.4 29.2 28.1 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 23.6 22.1 22.6 -3.3 13.1 20.6 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 24.3 24.8 24.2 -1.9 25.6 29.6 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 24.6 24.6 22.1 -1.7 28.8 31.5 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.2 24.8 24.9 -1.7 30.0 32.5 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 25.4 26.1 24.2 -1.6 29.3 31.8 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 18.5 17.6 19.3 -3.6 12.8 18.4 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 24.6 25.3 25.9 -1.8 33.5 33.1 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------