***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.4 18.3 0.4 63.1 60.6 14.8 15.2 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.4 18.4 0.4 63.1 61.6 14.2 15.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.9 18.0 0.1 56.7 53.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 15.8 0.0 51.1 50.6 11.2 12.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.7 15.5 0.0 50.3 49.0 13.2 13.7 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.6 13.6 0.0 50.9 50.5 12.2 12.6 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.5 18.5 0.5 67.2 63.7 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 13.5 0.0 49.8 50.5 7.0 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.9 15.9 0.0 53.4 50.0 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.6 14.2 -0.1 49.7 48.5 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.7 15.0 0.0 52.4 50.8 14.3 14.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.6 14.6 0.1 53.2 53.5 12.0 12.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.0 14.1 0.0 51.7 50.4 13.8 14.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.4 15.9 -0.1 51.5 49.2 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.3 17.1 0.3 58.8 57.9 15.3 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.1 14.9 0.1 53.2 51.5 14.2 14.9 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.7 17.8 0.2 62.0 57.5 15.1 15.5 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.1 13.5 -0.1 48.0 47.4 12.9 13.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.1 18.3 0.4 61.4 59.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.0 11.3 -0.2 43.2 44.9 8.9 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.0 17.2 0.1 54.9 51.6 14.2 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.8 17.8 0.2 59.6 56.3 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.5 17.9 0.3 60.6 57.4 14.2 14.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.0 15.7 -0.1 50.2 49.0 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.9 16.7 0.2 59.3 55.4 14.2 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.8 14.1 0.1 56.0 54.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.0 17.5 0.4 65.1 61.7 14.1 14.4 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.9 16.4 0.2 56.4 55.2 13.3 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 12.8 -0.1 48.3 48.5 11.2 11.6 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.4 18.6 0.4 63.8 61.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------