***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.6 20.0 1.4 75.5 71.2 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.6 20.2 1.4 78.1 70.4 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.9 18.4 19.8 1.2 73.0 68.2 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.4 17.7 1.1 72.0 66.9 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.8 17.3 1.1 69.6 66.7 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.6 14.0 15.5 1.1 76.5 69.3 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.3 20.3 1.5 79.4 70.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 8.8 9.6 15.5 1.3 80.7 72.2 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.9 17.6 1.1 71.5 67.7 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.0 16.0 1.1 74.8 68.6 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.1 16.9 1.2 76.0 70.0 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.6 14.3 16.7 1.4 80.6 74.2 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.7 16.0 1.2 77.9 71.0 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.3 17.5 1.0 67.6 64.9 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.9 18.8 1.3 76.2 70.5 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.5 16.8 1.2 74.1 70.4 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.8 19.6 1.2 75.4 67.2 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.8 15.3 1.0 76.3 67.9 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.6 16.0 20.1 1.4 77.4 70.5 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.6 13.4 1.1 76.9 68.9 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.9 18.9 1.2 72.0 68.3 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.6 16.0 19.5 1.2 75.5 67.8 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.9 19.7 1.4 76.9 70.4 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.5 17.4 1.0 71.6 66.3 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.2 18.3 1.2 74.3 69.6 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.8 15.5 16.2 1.3 82.3 73.7 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.6 16.0 19.2 1.4 77.8 72.1 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.6 18.3 1.3 74.3 69.4 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.7 14.6 1.1 76.6 68.4 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.5 20.3 1.4 78.0 70.5 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------