***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.3 18.6 0.6 59.6 58.8 15.2 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.7 17.0 19.0 0.8 69.4 62.1 14.0 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.1 18.4 0.4 56.3 56.4 16.4 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.8 16.3 0.2 54.1 53.3 12.0 12.4 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.6 15.9 0.2 53.3 53.3 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.7 14.1 0.3 59.0 55.6 12.8 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 16.7 16.6 19.0 0.9 69.0 63.0 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.7 13.9 0.3 59.5 56.3 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.7 16.2 0.2 53.4 53.3 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 14.6 0.2 53.8 53.5 14.8 15.1 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.6 15.4 0.3 57.2 55.3 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.6 15.1 0.4 62.6 58.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.2 14.5 0.3 59.7 55.3 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.4 16.3 0.3 56.3 54.9 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 17.2 0.3 53.9 54.6 16.1 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.1 15.2 0.3 60.0 55.7 15.2 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.1 17.2 18.4 0.7 67.3 60.1 14.9 16.1 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.2 14.0 0.2 56.4 55.0 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.6 18.8 0.8 67.3 61.3 14.6 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.1 11.9 0.2 57.9 55.6 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.0 17.5 0.3 55.9 55.1 14.5 15.3 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.0 18.3 0.6 66.7 60.2 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.6 18.4 0.7 65.0 60.5 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.1 16.1 0.2 54.8 54.3 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.9 16.9 0.4 58.5 56.2 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.6 14.6 0.3 55.6 56.9 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.0 17.8 0.6 62.9 59.8 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.8 16.7 0.3 56.1 55.3 14.1 14.2 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.2 13.3 0.4 61.5 57.3 11.7 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.9 16.7 19.0 0.8 66.7 61.4 14.8 16.2 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------