***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.7 14.2 17.1 -0.7 33.6 39.7 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.4 14.0 17.4 -0.6 35.5 42.1 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 15.3 15.4 16.9 -0.9 30.2 36.4 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 9.9 10.2 14.8 -0.9 32.0 35.3 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 12.1 12.3 14.4 -1.0 32.3 34.3 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 11.1 10.9 12.5 -1.0 27.4 33.6 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.3 17.5 -0.5 37.3 43.6 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.6 12.6 -0.8 32.3 36.9 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 13.5 13.6 14.7 -1.0 31.1 34.1 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 13.6 13.7 13.2 -1.0 30.4 34.4 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.5 14.0 -0.8 32.3 36.4 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 11.3 11.7 13.6 -0.7 33.6 37.8 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 12.4 12.7 12.9 -1.0 26.4 32.8 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.3 14.8 -1.0 29.5 34.0 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 14.6 14.8 15.7 -0.8 30.6 37.8 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 13.4 13.5 13.7 -0.9 29.5 35.0 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 14.3 14.6 16.9 -0.8 33.0 40.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 11.9 11.9 12.6 -1.0 28.8 32.8 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.0 17.3 -0.7 34.9 40.6 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 7.8 8.2 10.5 -1.1 28.2 32.2 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 13.3 13.5 16.0 -0.9 32.1 35.6 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 13.3 13.5 16.8 -0.9 31.4 38.3 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.3 16.8 -0.7 34.5 39.1 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 13.1 13.6 14.7 -1.0 30.4 33.9 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 13.1 13.1 15.5 -0.8 34.4 38.1 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 12.1 12.2 13.0 -0.9 26.0 33.6 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.1 16.3 -0.6 35.9 40.9 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 12.2 12.2 15.2 -0.8 30.9 37.0 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 10.3 10.1 11.8 -1.0 29.6 33.4 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.3 17.5 -0.6 34.7 41.2 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------