***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 14.8 14.7 17.3 0.3 52.5 55.3 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 14.2 14.0 17.0 0.0 49.2 50.9 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 16.1 15.8 16.8 -0.3 44.6 45.8 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.6 14.4 -0.4 42.9 43.1 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 14.5 -0.4 41.6 41.3 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.3 12.2 -0.4 41.0 41.8 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.3 17.3 0.3 52.8 54.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.3 5.3 11.9 -0.7 35.5 37.1 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.1 13.7 15.1 -0.3 44.1 43.8 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.3 13.0 -0.6 37.1 39.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 12.7 12.9 13.9 -0.5 37.2 39.2 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.9 12.9 -0.6 38.3 39.4 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.7 13.1 -0.4 39.5 41.5 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.1 13.7 14.7 -0.6 37.7 39.3 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.4 16.8 0.3 53.8 53.7 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 -0.4 39.7 41.6 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.1 16.5 -0.2 46.7 47.3 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 11.0 11.9 12.1 -0.8 34.2 35.8 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 14.2 13.9 16.9 -0.1 48.7 48.9 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 7.0 7.4 9.6 -1.1 30.6 32.0 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.3 13.9 16.4 -0.3 45.1 44.0 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.1 16.5 -0.3 44.9 45.7 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.3 16.6 -0.2 47.4 46.0 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.5 13.1 14.6 -0.6 38.5 39.3 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 13.8 13.5 16.0 0.0 49.5 48.6 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.7 12.7 -0.1 49.3 49.1 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 13.6 13.5 16.7 0.3 53.7 54.8 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.8 15.4 0.0 50.1 49.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.3 9.6 11.2 -0.9 33.5 35.2 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.4 17.3 0.1 50.0 52.4 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------