***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 31.7 37.2 39.3 67.0 34.5 33.5 35.0 50.8 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 42.1 47.0 32.5 63.7 33.6 33.0 46.5 55.3 67.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 45.6 47.3 39.6 66.4 35.2 33.6 46.5 58.2 78.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 40.3 48.4 43.6 74.5 41.0 37.8 38.3 67.9 83.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 35.9 43.3 41.6 71.4 43.2 35.8 38.0 49.6 66.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 29.6 35.2 53.7 79.7 42.9 38.3 31.1 44.1 57.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 38.2 41.6 33.0 64.8 33.7 33.5 40.5 58.0 69.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 48.1 53.5 49.4 72.0 36.5 35.1 53.0 68.1 92.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 38.1 49.8 44.6 71.2 42.5 35.6 37.5 52.7 68.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 48.1 60.7 51.2 71.2 38.3 34.8 55.8 73.2 92.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 31.9 38.3 39.7 72.3 39.3 36.4 34.0 48.5 69.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 30.1 38.8 40.1 73.9 39.3 37.2 33.8 47.7 63.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 23.0 34.8 44.6 77.4 43.5 38.8 24.5 38.8 49.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 56.7 59.6 40.7 54.1 28.0 26.5 66.0 80.0 100.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 22.3 28.0 34.5 70.6 40.7 37.7 18.8 39.6 55.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.2 36.2 42.1 75.5 39.8 37.9 28.9 49.3 54.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 32.1 36.1 31.3 62.6 35.5 32.7 35.8 50.2 58.2 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 41.2 42.6 53.1 67.9 32.0 32.3 42.6 55.5 90.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 39.1 48.7 32.9 61.6 32.0 32.1 49.8 59.7 80.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 44.8 53.4 56.2 71.7 32.2 33.6 53.9 59.4 66.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 34.7 41.4 40.9 67.9 37.1 33.9 38.6 53.4 66.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 34.2 38.5 30.4 57.4 29.1 30.3 39.9 52.5 65.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 44.8 50.0 34.0 58.7 28.7 30.6 54.6 64.1 80.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 48.3 68.3 44.8 63.8 32.4 31.7 68.5 77.4 109.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 35.1 44.0 44.1 70.3 35.4 34.3 41.2 54.3 77.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 26.9 35.3 37.4 78.7 42.2 40.2 26.8 43.4 52.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 40.2 51.8 42.4 68.5 34.2 34.0 51.6 68.9 78.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 25.4 33.9 41.3 73.4 40.8 37.9 28.0 41.0 62.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 52.5 51.0 56.3 69.3 30.4 32.1 53.8 82.6 122.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 52.6 56.5 34.9 65.1 34.3 33.6 56.2 65.9 73.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------