***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.7 8.3 8.7 79.0 61.1 42.7 1.1 4.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.7 10.9 7.8 83.1 61.6 42.1 3.0 5.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.5 8.9 76.9 57.6 41.5 3.7 7.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.6 12.6 8.7 81.4 62.4 45.0 1.4 8.3 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.8 8.0 72.2 59.9 42.4 2.0 6.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.7 11.3 88.4 65.2 47.8 4.6 9.2 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.0 7.4 78.2 59.8 42.1 1.5 8.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.6 20.0 8.8 68.0 53.9 40.6 10.7 19.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.0 12.2 9.2 74.7 59.5 42.3 4.3 7.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.8 10.7 10.0 71.6 54.8 41.5 6.7 9.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.9 6.1 63.5 57.1 41.3 2.5 4.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.2 6.9 71.1 59.9 42.3 2.1 6.6 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.8 9.2 8.5 80.5 65.2 45.3 2.1 4.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.8 11.9 9.9 61.1 54.6 40.8 5.9 11.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.4 7.2 89.3 65.4 50.0 1.2 3.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.0 7.8 76.7 63.6 44.2 2.3 7.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.4 4.7 7.4 83.3 61.2 42.5 0.9 2.9 5.8 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 13.5 11.9 76.7 55.7 41.5 7.7 12.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.1 11.7 8.0 77.9 59.5 42.0 5.4 9.9 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 14.0 12.2 78.5 54.0 41.5 6.9 10.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.2 8.6 74.6 58.5 41.8 5.3 7.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.2 7.6 74.7 55.9 41.6 3.6 9.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.1 8.5 8.1 67.6 56.6 41.8 3.3 8.4 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.4 12.7 10.2 71.2 56.5 42.2 4.0 11.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.0 9.2 9.8 85.1 63.2 45.4 3.6 4.7 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.9 9.5 6.8 87.2 66.8 48.5 1.0 3.9 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.1 8.5 9.4 81.7 61.5 44.0 3.1 5.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.3 8.2 81.1 63.7 46.7 1.6 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 19.9 12.3 76.5 53.2 41.8 9.8 18.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.9 8.3 81.5 60.3 42.1 2.6 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------