***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.9 15.7 10.5 83.9 60.7 44.9 7.9 11.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.8 16.8 8.5 78.5 62.0 46.5 7.4 13.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.7 16.1 10.9 84.6 61.3 44.8 8.1 13.3 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.0 9.9 86.6 59.5 45.8 3.8 7.2 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.1 11.9 9.9 90.6 61.0 46.2 4.1 10.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.2 12.1 92.4 60.3 47.8 3.7 4.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.8 16.5 9.4 88.6 65.9 47.7 8.3 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.6 20.7 11.8 88.7 58.0 46.8 11.7 17.9 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.5 12.1 10.8 87.2 57.7 45.2 3.3 9.5 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.3 14.9 12.3 86.3 56.6 46.3 10.6 14.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.3 8.4 88.3 61.0 47.4 5.2 7.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.8 15.0 9.0 89.2 59.8 46.0 6.2 13.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.2 10.2 97.7 63.8 49.4 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.5 19.4 11.6 72.5 53.0 41.3 7.9 15.2 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.3 6.9 78.5 63.2 47.8 1.1 2.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 1.9 6.8 9.2 90.4 62.8 46.6 3.5 4.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 6.3 20.7 8.7 81.0 63.2 46.8 4.2 13.0 22.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.5 21.3 14.1 86.5 56.5 43.9 12.3 17.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.1 8.4 74.4 61.1 45.1 4.6 8.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 20.8 14.7 93.0 57.6 46.5 10.0 16.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.8 15.5 10.6 85.2 59.7 43.6 7.8 11.1 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.8 15.9 8.2 68.1 57.0 44.0 7.4 13.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.8 20.8 8.9 73.6 59.6 41.9 7.5 13.0 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.7 23.5 12.4 83.0 58.4 43.7 6.2 15.5 33.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.1 11.2 11.2 87.1 60.8 47.0 5.4 7.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.8 8.6 106.4 68.3 51.1 3.9 6.2 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.3 19.3 10.6 82.8 59.2 45.8 8.9 14.3 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.5 11.4 8.6 82.3 61.2 47.5 1.4 4.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.6 21.2 15.3 88.8 57.5 45.1 10.1 19.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.8 16.5 9.5 83.0 62.0 46.9 8.2 13.3 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------