***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.6 12.8 13.9 91.2 61.4 43.1 5.1 9.5 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 5.7 14.2 11.9 89.6 58.0 46.2 5.5 11.8 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.6 14.0 85.0 57.3 45.3 6.5 12.1 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.1 10.2 14.6 88.1 57.1 45.1 3.1 9.6 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.6 13.3 81.2 54.9 44.3 3.2 5.8 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.7 13.6 72.6 50.6 40.2 0.5 4.2 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.5 12.0 93.1 60.9 44.7 7.1 9.0 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 8.6 12.4 69.0 49.4 39.6 3.9 9.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.4 14.1 80.6 52.5 41.1 1.3 4.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.2 13.5 71.3 50.5 40.1 3.0 7.2 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.6 5.0 13.4 81.4 55.1 45.6 1.1 3.4 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.5 11.3 74.4 52.7 42.4 0.6 4.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.8 5.8 14.3 83.3 57.1 48.0 1.9 3.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.7 11.3 13.2 68.9 50.7 40.7 6.1 11.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.4 5.9 13.1 92.6 64.1 47.0 1.5 3.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.7 5.2 12.4 75.7 53.7 42.0 1.3 4.4 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.5 14.6 11.0 88.3 58.5 44.5 5.0 9.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.6 13.7 65.5 46.2 38.2 1.4 7.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.9 11.8 83.6 55.9 45.0 4.2 11.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 8.4 13.5 63.3 43.5 35.9 4.4 10.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.0 11.4 13.3 79.7 55.2 39.6 1.6 9.0 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.0 10.7 80.2 55.0 42.9 5.0 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.1 13.6 11.6 75.4 54.1 42.3 6.1 11.4 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.2 14.0 74.4 52.5 42.6 5.9 14.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.1 13.7 16.1 92.2 60.0 45.2 6.4 12.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.9 13.4 92.9 62.1 54.0 0.5 5.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 15.2 15.8 94.1 61.4 44.8 4.6 11.2 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.2 12.9 84.1 58.6 44.1 1.8 4.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 12.5 16.8 75.8 49.2 41.8 7.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.4 15.1 12.6 88.2 59.1 44.5 7.2 12.5 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------