***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.1 6.2 31.2 38.0 29.4 4.6 8.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 4.0 8.0 4.3 24.7 33.1 22.5 8.0 10.7 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.6 6.7 5.8 31.0 37.2 27.7 5.0 9.0 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.1 10.5 52.5 43.5 35.4 4.4 12.2 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 6.1 7.3 10.3 51.7 45.2 34.5 3.2 15.5 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.7 7.3 16.6 74.3 46.0 41.7 2.8 9.2 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 4.3 7.0 4.2 23.3 31.9 22.9 7.1 9.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 9.0 14.8 16.4 66.1 46.5 36.8 8.2 16.7 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.2 12.0 10.4 51.3 44.2 33.8 6.8 14.5 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 10.1 18.9 15.3 60.5 45.3 35.6 8.2 21.8 32.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 6.4 16.0 11.7 58.0 49.1 36.4 6.0 16.1 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.5 12.9 66.3 48.3 37.9 3.2 6.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.2 10.0 11.5 59.5 47.9 37.0 6.5 10.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 8.1 10.5 5.9 24.8 26.9 20.1 12.1 21.4 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 1.9 7.4 41.2 43.3 35.0 1.1 3.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.7 10.2 12.7 66.0 50.3 39.2 5.4 10.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.6 4.2 23.2 28.5 20.5 3.9 7.9 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.5 13.4 51.9 36.6 31.3 5.9 15.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 4.0 7.3 4.7 26.7 34.2 23.1 6.9 12.1 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.9 10.6 15.9 61.2 40.3 33.4 8.7 13.3 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.9 6.3 8.4 42.9 41.2 32.1 4.7 8.9 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 2.4 2.7 3.9 22.4 28.4 19.6 3.2 8.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.0 5.8 5.4 29.1 34.1 23.6 5.7 10.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 10.7 10.4 8.2 37.1 34.5 26.9 9.4 19.2 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.2 7.0 7.1 33.8 37.1 29.2 4.5 10.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.3 7.9 8.6 49.8 42.0 33.3 4.5 10.5 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.1 7.4 6.5 31.5 37.1 28.5 6.9 11.5 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.1 10.1 11.5 56.2 45.6 37.5 3.9 13.7 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 10.4 9.6 11.8 45.2 31.8 27.8 11.1 18.9 33.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 5.8 5.8 4.5 25.6 34.7 24.7 5.2 15.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------