***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 29.6 29.9 31.4 2.5 79.0 72.4 27.1 28.5 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.9 31.2 2.3 75.8 69.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.2 31.7 2.6 79.2 71.9 26.5 27.7 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 23.0 23.6 29.3 2.6 80.1 73.1 19.5 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.5 29.1 2.1 73.9 68.7 26.9 28.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.8 25.8 1.5 69.6 65.0 25.6 26.7 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.4 30.2 31.1 2.4 79.7 71.3 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.9 27.3 1.9 71.5 67.0 15.0 16.2 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.9 29.1 2.0 72.5 68.5 26.6 27.7 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.8 27.9 2.1 72.8 68.5 26.3 27.4 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.9 28.7 1.8 70.6 66.1 26.6 28.1 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.9 28.7 1.7 69.7 65.5 25.4 26.5 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 29.6 29.8 27.3 1.4 67.1 63.1 27.2 28.1 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 29.0 29.8 29.2 2.6 79.7 72.2 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 30.5 31.0 30.4 2.4 78.6 72.2 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 30.6 30.6 28.2 1.7 70.3 65.6 27.3 29.1 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.2 30.1 31.0 2.4 79.0 71.2 26.4 27.2 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.6 27.4 2.4 76.1 70.4 25.6 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.5 31.4 2.4 76.1 70.2 26.6 27.4 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 23.7 24.3 24.6 2.1 75.8 68.5 20.8 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 29.7 30.2 30.5 2.5 77.4 71.4 26.6 27.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 29.5 30.2 31.1 2.6 80.0 72.4 27.2 27.9 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.7 31.4 2.4 78.2 70.6 26.6 27.5 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 28.7 29.4 29.2 2.5 78.0 71.5 26.1 27.1 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 29.8 30.3 29.4 2.5 78.6 72.5 26.6 28.0 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 29.1 29.4 28.0 1.3 65.1 62.5 27.1 27.7 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 29.3 30.1 30.3 2.5 79.3 72.7 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.7 31.3 29.5 2.4 77.8 71.5 27.9 29.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 23.4 24.1 26.2 2.3 76.5 69.7 20.9 21.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 29.4 30.2 31.3 2.3 77.8 70.5 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------