***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.7 30.4 1.8 73.6 66.7 27.6 29.3 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 29.5 30.2 30.1 1.6 70.2 64.5 27.2 28.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.6 30.7 1.8 73.7 66.5 27.0 28.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 22.9 23.5 28.1 1.9 75.8 67.7 19.7 21.1 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.4 31.2 27.9 1.3 69.6 61.7 27.3 28.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 27.9 29.1 24.6 0.7 64.6 57.8 26.0 27.4 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 29.5 30.0 30.1 1.7 71.9 65.7 27.0 28.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.5 18.3 26.1 1.1 66.8 59.5 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.2 30.5 28.0 1.2 69.1 61.4 26.8 28.8 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.4 29.8 26.8 1.3 69.3 61.5 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.4 27.5 1.0 64.9 58.4 26.8 28.4 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.0 29.4 27.4 0.9 62.3 57.4 26.3 27.6 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.8 26.0 0.5 60.5 55.0 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 29.3 29.7 28.1 1.7 73.8 66.4 26.9 27.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 30.5 31.4 29.3 1.8 72.5 67.5 28.2 28.7 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.1 30.5 26.9 0.9 63.9 57.8 27.5 29.6 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 28.8 29.4 30.1 1.8 72.4 67.1 26.4 27.6 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 28.6 29.4 26.2 1.5 71.3 63.3 26.0 27.1 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 29.2 29.6 30.4 1.6 70.5 64.9 26.6 27.5 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 25.0 23.5 1.3 71.0 61.8 21.8 23.3 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.3 31.2 29.4 1.7 73.8 65.4 27.2 28.3 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.9 30.2 2.1 74.6 68.9 26.8 28.0 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.4 30.1 30.4 1.7 72.0 65.3 27.3 27.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.6 28.1 1.7 73.1 65.1 26.3 27.2 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.8 28.3 1.8 74.8 66.4 27.3 28.1 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.3 26.6 0.4 58.9 53.5 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 29.7 30.3 29.3 1.8 74.8 66.8 26.6 28.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 30.8 31.7 28.4 1.7 72.6 66.4 27.8 29.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.1 24.5 25.1 1.4 71.0 62.7 21.3 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 29.2 29.8 30.2 1.6 71.0 64.9 27.1 27.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------