***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 29.3 30.9 30.6 3.3 88.0 78.6 25.6 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.1 30.5 2.9 84.0 75.5 24.8 27.3 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.3 30.8 30.8 3.2 86.5 77.2 24.9 27.6 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 21.7 25.0 27.5 3.1 90.8 79.0 17.8 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 29.4 31.5 28.0 2.6 85.1 75.0 25.7 27.5 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 27.8 28.2 24.5 1.8 75.3 71.1 24.3 26.5 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 29.0 30.3 30.5 3.2 87.9 77.6 24.7 26.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.1 18.0 25.7 2.4 80.4 73.7 13.8 15.8 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.0 31.2 28.5 2.5 84.4 74.1 24.9 26.9 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 28.7 30.2 26.6 2.6 83.3 74.9 25.1 26.8 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 28.9 30.3 27.9 2.3 80.9 72.9 25.2 26.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 27.7 28.4 27.0 2.2 77.5 71.8 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.0 26.5 1.7 72.0 67.8 25.4 27.5 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 29.3 31.3 28.6 3.1 87.5 76.9 25.2 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 29.7 31.1 29.7 2.8 86.3 77.4 25.9 28.5 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 29.7 30.1 27.1 2.0 75.8 70.5 25.8 28.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 28.6 29.7 30.5 3.4 87.5 78.1 24.6 26.4 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 28.3 29.7 25.9 2.8 85.1 76.0 24.3 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.7 29.9 30.6 3.0 83.2 75.6 24.3 26.5 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 23.6 24.9 23.5 2.6 83.8 76.0 20.2 21.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 29.5 31.1 29.8 3.0 87.1 76.5 25.0 27.3 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.9 30.7 3.6 87.7 79.3 24.6 26.5 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.8 30.5 3.0 82.7 75.6 24.6 26.8 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 28.7 30.7 28.4 3.0 86.8 76.6 24.6 26.7 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 29.2 31.5 28.7 2.9 86.8 76.9 25.4 27.8 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.3 26.1 1.7 71.9 68.7 25.3 27.4 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 28.5 30.8 29.6 3.1 87.9 78.2 25.1 27.3 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 29.7 32.4 28.2 2.9 88.1 77.6 26.4 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 23.8 24.8 25.0 2.7 85.3 76.1 19.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 29.0 30.3 30.6 3.1 84.8 76.4 24.4 26.9 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------