***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 28.4 28.8 28.6 1.6 73.6 70.1 25.2 25.9 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 28.2 27.7 29.1 1.8 73.3 71.6 25.2 26.0 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 28.0 27.5 28.6 1.3 70.7 66.7 24.9 25.6 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.4 19.9 24.1 0.4 57.0 56.2 18.1 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.0 25.0 -0.1 49.4 49.5 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 23.2 22.7 20.5 -1.8 20.9 26.6 24.0 25.1 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 27.9 28.0 29.0 2.1 77.1 74.9 24.7 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.5 13.3 22.1 -0.7 41.5 42.5 13.1 14.8 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.3 25.7 26.1 0.1 52.5 52.1 24.0 25.6 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.3 23.5 -0.2 47.9 48.0 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 24.8 25.1 25.0 -0.6 42.3 43.5 24.5 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 24.2 24.3 23.2 -1.0 38.2 39.0 24.0 25.1 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 24.6 24.7 23.3 -1.9 23.8 27.9 24.8 25.8 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 27.4 27.6 26.9 1.5 72.2 69.5 24.6 25.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 27.4 27.3 27.1 0.2 51.5 52.8 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 25.3 25.7 23.8 -1.3 33.0 35.0 25.7 26.2 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 27.5 28.2 29.4 2.6 80.2 79.1 24.8 25.4 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 25.4 25.3 22.9 0.2 55.1 53.0 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 27.5 27.5 29.1 1.8 73.3 71.1 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.6 20.1 -0.4 45.6 44.9 19.0 21.0 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 26.5 26.3 27.5 0.7 62.3 59.4 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 28.4 29.3 29.6 2.9 82.6 81.4 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 27.8 27.7 28.8 1.6 72.0 68.8 24.7 25.6 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 25.8 26.1 26.2 0.9 64.9 62.2 24.2 25.2 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 26.9 26.6 26.4 0.6 60.8 58.3 25.3 26.5 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 24.3 23.9 21.6 -2.1 19.0 26.1 24.8 25.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 27.3 26.9 27.6 1.2 68.5 65.7 24.7 25.4 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 27.4 26.9 25.0 0.0 49.3 50.4 26.0 27.0 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 20.8 20.7 22.0 0.1 54.5 52.3 19.0 20.3 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 27.9 27.7 29.0 1.7 73.6 70.5 24.8 25.9 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------