***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 15.5 15.8 18.8 1.3 80.3 76.5 14.8 15.2 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 15.5 15.7 18.7 1.2 77.9 75.0 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 17.3 17.8 19.1 1.2 80.6 76.7 16.1 16.8 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 12.7 13.1 16.1 1.0 80.1 74.9 11.2 12.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.2 14.3 16.2 0.8 74.3 70.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.0 13.4 0.5 69.2 63.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 15.7 15.8 18.9 1.3 82.3 77.4 14.6 15.2 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.2 8.4 13.6 0.7 73.9 68.2 6.9 7.6 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.4 15.6 16.3 0.8 76.4 70.8 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.6 14.6 0.8 76.8 70.9 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.2 15.7 0.7 72.5 67.3 14.3 14.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.2 14.6 0.6 71.6 66.0 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.2 13.8 0.2 60.2 58.0 13.7 13.9 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.6 16.4 1.0 81.7 75.0 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 16.6 16.9 17.7 1.0 79.5 74.5 15.3 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.5 14.8 0.4 66.2 62.3 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.3 18.7 1.4 82.7 78.2 15.0 15.4 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.1 14.0 0.9 80.5 74.2 12.9 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 15.5 15.7 18.8 1.2 77.5 75.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.8 11.6 0.8 75.9 70.9 8.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.5 17.8 1.1 81.4 75.0 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 15.2 15.6 18.8 1.5 83.3 79.2 14.2 14.6 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 14.9 14.9 18.6 1.2 76.8 74.5 14.2 14.3 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 15.8 16.1 16.3 1.1 81.8 76.5 14.3 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.3 17.1 0.9 75.9 71.4 14.1 14.7 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.8 13.3 0.3 60.6 58.1 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 15.1 15.4 17.9 1.1 79.0 74.4 14.2 14.4 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.6 16.5 1.0 79.2 73.9 13.3 13.8 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.6 13.3 0.9 78.4 73.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 15.5 15.8 18.9 1.2 79.8 75.6 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------