***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.5 17.0 19.9 1.8 80.7 71.6 14.8 15.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.6 19.7 1.7 77.6 69.8 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.6 20.2 1.8 82.3 71.8 16.1 17.4 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 13.6 14.3 17.4 1.6 80.9 72.3 11.1 12.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.1 17.1 1.3 75.8 68.3 13.2 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.2 14.8 1.0 72.7 66.0 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.8 19.9 1.8 80.4 71.4 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 8.8 9.1 14.9 1.2 75.9 67.6 7.4 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.2 17.1 1.3 76.0 68.5 14.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.2 15.6 1.3 76.8 68.7 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 16.5 1.1 73.4 66.0 14.2 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.5 15.7 1.1 73.4 66.2 11.9 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.1 14.6 0.8 68.2 62.7 13.1 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.2 17.3 1.5 78.4 71.0 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.6 18.1 18.8 1.6 81.0 73.3 15.5 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.3 15.7 1.0 70.9 65.1 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.8 19.6 1.8 79.1 71.0 15.0 15.9 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.4 15.1 14.9 1.4 77.8 71.0 12.3 13.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.3 19.8 1.7 77.7 70.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.6 12.4 1.2 75.2 69.2 8.4 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.2 18.8 1.7 79.9 71.3 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.6 16.0 19.6 1.8 80.3 71.9 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.9 19.7 1.6 78.3 70.6 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.7 17.2 1.5 79.9 71.4 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 15.9 16.2 18.2 1.7 79.0 70.9 14.3 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.9 14.4 0.8 69.0 62.3 12.9 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.7 19.0 1.8 79.7 71.4 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 15.3 15.8 17.6 1.5 79.5 72.1 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.7 14.3 1.4 78.2 71.0 11.3 12.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.7 20.0 1.7 79.1 70.5 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------