***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.4 18.9 1.1 68.9 63.3 15.2 16.0 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.7 18.9 1.0 68.2 62.4 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.5 18.3 19.3 1.2 71.3 65.7 16.6 17.9 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.2 16.5 1.2 71.5 67.1 11.5 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.2 16.3 0.9 68.9 62.9 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.0 14.1 0.7 65.7 62.1 12.3 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.8 19.0 1.1 68.5 63.9 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.8 14.1 0.8 66.9 63.7 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.1 16.4 0.9 68.2 62.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.9 14.9 0.9 69.5 64.2 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.7 15.8 0.7 66.0 61.6 14.2 15.2 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.9 14.9 0.7 65.4 62.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.9 13.9 0.5 61.4 58.4 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.7 16.7 1.1 71.8 65.8 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.5 18.0 1.2 73.3 66.8 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.2 15.0 0.7 65.5 60.8 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.0 17.1 18.8 1.1 69.3 64.1 15.1 16.0 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.9 15.1 14.2 1.1 74.8 67.4 13.1 13.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.4 19.0 1.1 69.5 63.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.6 11.9 1.0 73.5 66.9 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.1 18.0 1.1 69.8 64.7 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.2 18.9 1.3 71.7 66.5 13.8 14.8 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.5 18.9 1.1 70.4 64.3 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.8 16.5 1.1 73.8 66.7 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.0 17.2 0.9 66.1 62.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.6 13.7 0.5 61.9 58.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.8 18.0 1.0 67.5 62.5 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.3 16.9 1.2 72.3 66.8 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.9 13.7 1.1 74.4 68.0 11.6 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.9 19.1 1.1 67.9 63.2 14.7 16.3 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------