***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 15.9 17.6 19.7 2.5 89.3 82.4 14.1 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.6 19.5 2.4 85.9 80.0 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 18.0 19.7 19.8 2.4 88.3 81.6 15.2 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 13.0 15.3 16.8 2.1 87.5 80.2 10.0 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 13.9 14.7 17.1 2.0 83.8 78.3 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.0 13.9 14.2 1.6 82.3 76.2 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 16.0 17.5 19.7 2.5 88.3 81.8 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.6 14.3 1.7 82.8 76.3 6.3 7.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.5 17.2 1.8 83.2 77.9 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 15.5 16.2 15.3 1.8 84.1 77.5 13.7 14.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 15.2 16.2 16.6 1.7 83.7 76.3 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 12.8 14.0 15.4 1.7 83.1 76.5 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.5 14.9 1.4 76.7 72.4 12.5 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 16.4 17.9 17.2 2.0 88.8 80.5 14.3 14.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 16.3 18.2 18.5 2.0 89.1 81.5 14.8 15.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.6 16.5 15.8 1.6 81.5 74.9 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 16.2 17.7 19.4 2.5 88.3 80.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 14.0 15.3 14.7 1.9 87.1 78.9 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 16.4 17.0 19.6 2.4 86.0 80.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.3 12.6 1.8 85.4 78.0 8.1 8.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 15.3 16.7 18.6 2.1 87.3 80.3 13.7 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.8 19.6 2.6 89.5 81.6 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.2 19.4 2.3 87.0 80.0 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.0 17.3 17.1 2.0 89.3 80.6 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 15.0 16.3 18.1 2.2 86.8 79.7 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.2 14.2 1.5 77.9 73.5 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 15.2 16.4 18.9 2.4 88.9 81.4 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 14.5 15.6 17.3 2.1 88.7 80.7 12.5 13.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 12.7 13.7 14.0 1.8 85.9 78.7 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 16.3 17.6 19.8 2.5 87.2 81.2 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------