***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 14.7 13.9 16.7 -0.4 44.1 44.9 13.8 14.5 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 14.1 13.8 16.7 -0.3 47.4 46.1 12.8 13.8 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 16.1 15.3 16.8 -0.4 44.8 44.7 14.7 15.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.8 13.5 -0.8 35.2 35.0 9.4 10.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.0 14.2 -0.9 32.4 33.0 12.0 12.8 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.7 -1.5 19.1 20.7 11.0 11.4 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 14.3 14.1 16.8 0.0 50.8 50.1 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.9 5.0 11.2 -1.0 32.8 32.2 5.0 6.4 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.3 14.6 -0.7 36.8 37.2 13.1 13.9 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.0 12.5 -0.8 37.4 36.7 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 12.9 12.8 13.8 -0.9 31.0 32.4 12.9 13.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 10.2 10.3 12.2 -1.2 26.5 27.6 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 11.5 11.3 12.0 -1.7 13.9 16.8 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.6 13.8 14.4 -0.5 40.3 41.8 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.9 13.6 15.5 -0.9 31.4 32.4 13.8 14.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 12.3 12.1 12.8 -1.5 16.3 19.4 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 14.5 14.4 16.8 0.2 53.5 53.6 13.6 14.4 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.2 12.0 -0.6 40.8 40.0 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 14.1 13.7 16.7 -0.2 47.8 46.5 13.2 13.8 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 7.5 9.8 -1.0 32.7 32.8 7.5 7.8 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 14.0 13.3 15.8 -0.6 40.6 40.6 12.8 13.8 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 13.7 13.5 17.0 0.2 54.7 54.6 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 13.5 13.0 16.5 -0.4 43.2 43.9 12.7 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.3 13.7 14.6 -0.4 45.2 45.1 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.5 14.9 -1.1 32.1 31.7 12.6 13.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 10.8 10.6 10.8 -1.7 13.9 17.4 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.7 12.8 15.8 -0.7 38.4 38.5 12.3 13.4 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 11.8 11.8 14.1 -0.9 31.3 32.1 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 9.6 11.1 -0.7 36.7 36.8 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.2 16.9 -0.3 47.2 45.9 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------