***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 60.3 93.6 61.6 125.8 75.7 60.7 41.3 50.8 59.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 61.1 77.8 55.7 131.3 74.4 59.4 47.9 55.8 69.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 73.3 112.8 61.3 135.4 78.9 61.3 45.7 63.6 82.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 74.3 90.4 56.9 120.3 69.6 58.2 39.8 67.5 89.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 57.3 80.8 58.4 130.7 76.9 60.2 38.9 50.8 66.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 51.7 54.7 60.6 111.1 67.9 57.8 32.8 48.5 52.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 66.5 81.2 54.1 121.8 70.9 56.8 40.0 58.0 66.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 82.4 130.6 65.1 126.2 72.4 60.6 53.7 64.0 101.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 62.7 91.6 61.4 129.3 77.5 59.4 41.1 54.0 72.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 84.0 97.7 69.3 127.0 74.1 60.4 54.5 76.4 91.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 57.6 75.9 57.4 127.8 73.0 60.8 34.4 51.4 72.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 70.1 75.0 57.5 131.7 73.6 63.3 32.1 50.8 63.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 51.7 58.8 59.9 121.5 71.9 61.4 24.5 35.2 52.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 95.3 118.8 73.2 126.3 74.7 58.9 64.4 84.0 103.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 46.6 62.7 51.6 122.7 66.8 59.3 21.3 38.0 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 57.6 58.9 57.6 123.9 71.6 61.8 30.3 45.3 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 59.1 72.5 53.0 123.4 72.0 58.4 37.3 51.7 62.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 72.4 113.3 74.4 123.9 75.4 60.4 48.5 59.5 94.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 70.8 90.0 57.6 135.5 76.9 60.7 51.7 65.4 81.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 69.1 85.3 74.5 125.6 74.4 61.8 53.5 61.6 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 82.8 96.6 59.2 128.1 76.4 59.9 37.1 55.2 67.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 58.2 67.0 55.5 123.7 68.7 57.7 38.8 53.2 63.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 79.5 90.7 60.7 137.7 79.3 62.7 54.6 63.3 83.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 94.9 127.1 66.4 124.9 75.4 59.1 68.5 81.6 106.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 76.3 81.7 66.2 125.7 73.2 62.3 42.5 58.6 78.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 56.4 60.3 50.1 127.8 74.7 65.8 30.0 46.3 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 77.8 84.8 67.0 125.9 73.9 62.0 56.9 75.3 79.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 49.5 59.6 55.7 123.5 69.3 60.5 22.9 45.1 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 96.9 129.4 75.8 121.7 73.6 60.3 62.6 87.2 121.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 73.6 83.9 57.5 130.9 74.0 58.5 57.5 67.7 75.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------