***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 21.4 11.6 126.7 76.1 52.8 1.1 4.2 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 18.6 10.2 128.0 76.2 53.7 4.0 6.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 16.9 12.1 134.5 74.0 53.8 2.8 8.1 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.7 19.0 10.2 116.8 73.7 54.3 2.3 5.5 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.3 16.1 10.1 118.6 74.9 54.9 2.8 9.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.5 16.7 12.3 121.9 78.3 51.9 3.7 9.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 22.8 10.2 121.3 75.1 54.1 7.0 9.0 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.9 22.7 10.3 106.3 68.5 46.3 11.8 16.8 22.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.8 18.9 11.5 121.8 75.0 52.4 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.3 20.0 12.0 110.5 68.6 48.7 6.9 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.5 8.8 108.4 68.7 49.4 4.1 7.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 14.3 9.3 116.4 72.9 50.8 3.4 6.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.2 12.7 12.0 126.3 79.1 54.4 2.2 4.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 19.4 35.8 15.3 128.2 75.4 52.1 6.1 13.5 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.7 9.9 10.0 142.0 77.6 56.9 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.1 13.0 10.9 123.5 74.1 54.0 4.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.3 10.7 8.9 110.9 74.1 50.6 0.8 2.9 5.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 17.0 13.8 106.4 68.3 50.5 8.2 12.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.5 26.2 11.1 138.4 78.4 54.3 6.4 10.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 20.4 13.0 105.3 66.6 50.5 8.2 11.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.4 14.1 11.1 120.7 75.4 53.2 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.2 20.2 10.4 121.1 75.7 51.5 4.3 7.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.1 27.2 12.6 152.7 80.0 54.3 7.4 9.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.2 18.9 13.2 116.0 70.7 51.2 7.1 13.0 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.3 20.7 12.1 125.0 75.7 55.1 3.8 4.7 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 17.0 9.3 135.2 82.8 55.3 1.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 22.7 13.0 134.6 79.5 54.7 2.7 5.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.0 16.7 10.9 131.5 75.3 54.6 1.0 2.1 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.2 25.1 13.5 101.4 65.1 49.0 9.6 15.7 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.5 20.1 11.3 136.1 75.5 54.5 4.8 8.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------