***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 21.4 11.4 115.0 69.1 51.7 5.4 11.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 20.9 9.5 112.3 68.5 54.2 7.8 13.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 7.1 18.0 10.9 119.2 69.2 51.8 6.8 11.2 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 12.8 8.1 81.7 64.8 47.4 5.5 7.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.0 11.2 8.8 92.6 65.9 49.0 3.8 5.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.8 5.7 9.8 81.6 59.8 44.8 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.0 8.3 98.0 66.1 50.5 4.5 8.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.5 29.8 10.1 90.3 64.9 42.8 9.3 17.4 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.8 10.2 94.2 61.7 47.2 5.1 8.9 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 16.6 11.6 92.7 63.8 45.6 7.0 12.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.9 12.8 7.9 89.6 67.9 45.5 2.6 6.3 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.8 19.1 8.8 98.8 67.8 46.6 4.6 13.6 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.2 8.6 9.5 98.3 66.1 49.7 1.8 6.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 18.3 13.2 105.5 60.7 50.0 6.3 11.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.9 9.2 6.6 78.2 65.8 46.6 0.6 2.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.9 8.8 8.6 94.2 66.5 49.4 1.3 3.9 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.3 9.1 103.6 65.0 51.8 4.0 10.8 19.5 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 10.4 17.8 13.6 94.4 62.3 47.9 11.5 14.6 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.2 21.7 10.2 120.8 70.8 54.3 4.8 10.0 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 21.4 13.8 94.6 60.7 47.1 8.3 17.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.7 14.8 10.2 104.4 64.5 48.9 7.7 9.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.5 9.1 98.1 63.2 49.9 9.0 14.4 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.8 21.7 10.7 122.3 70.9 52.3 8.2 9.9 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.2 21.1 11.5 99.1 61.7 47.5 9.3 14.2 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.6 11.2 102.7 70.1 49.9 7.0 11.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.8 7.0 97.0 68.5 50.6 2.7 6.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.0 21.5 12.4 111.4 69.2 51.0 6.1 11.9 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.1 11.6 7.7 83.5 64.6 49.1 2.0 4.5 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.8 28.7 14.2 97.6 63.7 48.0 11.4 19.8 31.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.8 25.4 9.5 109.0 67.8 52.2 6.2 12.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------