***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 22.0 20.8 163.2 78.4 60.6 5.6 14.3 20.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.8 27.9 22.6 180.7 83.4 59.4 3.2 10.8 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 27.8 22.2 182.2 81.8 61.7 6.5 12.4 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.9 20.5 17.7 160.4 75.5 58.2 3.1 9.2 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.9 44.3 20.5 178.4 83.2 60.5 2.5 9.9 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.6 16.2 16.0 121.4 67.3 56.7 2.8 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.2 29.8 19.7 161.5 77.5 58.3 3.2 8.8 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 41.7 19.5 153.3 75.7 56.7 3.0 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 21.0 19.8 164.5 81.8 55.9 2.6 6.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.2 35.9 22.1 167.0 78.5 59.2 2.4 8.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 43.2 20.8 157.8 79.3 59.4 1.4 7.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.1 25.0 18.4 151.0 77.0 57.8 2.0 5.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.0 19.1 18.9 141.8 75.1 62.2 2.4 4.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.5 32.0 24.0 158.9 75.9 62.1 7.2 12.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 18.4 17.5 166.0 78.5 56.0 1.4 3.6 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.1 19.3 18.9 142.6 75.7 59.4 1.5 5.8 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.5 38.0 19.9 163.8 81.6 58.5 5.0 9.9 20.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 22.0 21.9 153.8 76.9 57.4 1.5 7.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.9 30.9 23.2 184.1 83.3 61.5 4.2 9.9 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 22.6 23.8 167.5 81.5 61.3 6.1 11.1 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.9 28.4 21.2 175.5 83.9 59.2 1.3 10.5 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.9 26.8 20.6 154.4 79.6 60.2 4.4 7.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 21.1 44.7 23.5 188.1 84.4 65.2 8.7 12.5 21.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 20.9 37.4 22.5 165.8 79.0 61.0 7.8 16.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.2 26.6 22.1 164.3 77.8 64.6 5.1 9.2 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.4 17.9 14.9 133.8 73.0 59.7 1.0 6.8 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.0 28.3 21.2 152.8 76.4 62.0 5.0 12.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.4 17.0 162.4 76.3 57.6 1.7 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 25.6 23.3 150.0 76.4 58.0 8.2 16.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.1 26.6 23.0 188.7 82.2 60.6 3.9 10.9 19.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------