***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 10.6 15.9 17.7 103.7 63.0 53.0 4.3 8.0 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.5 20.5 13.4 99.3 64.1 52.8 5.7 11.6 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.5 33.4 16.1 108.1 67.8 53.6 7.3 14.5 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.6 38.2 20.9 118.6 67.5 55.5 9.0 14.7 36.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.8 26.6 19.0 125.6 69.9 60.0 4.1 13.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 13.6 21.5 22.6 116.4 68.4 60.5 4.8 11.6 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.0 15.8 103.9 68.6 52.5 4.2 9.3 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 29.3 36.0 25.1 140.1 72.7 65.6 10.8 16.5 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.5 26.6 19.9 131.3 71.0 60.5 9.1 14.0 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.7 38.0 23.6 129.9 70.1 60.7 9.6 21.3 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.4 22.7 19.9 134.4 69.4 61.2 7.8 14.3 22.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 16.8 22.6 21.1 144.3 73.7 67.3 3.0 5.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.2 22.4 19.6 115.8 70.2 61.0 5.5 11.1 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.4 29.0 20.7 112.9 64.7 56.3 12.1 19.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.2 20.2 17.5 109.8 69.4 54.2 2.5 7.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.2 19.4 19.2 125.7 71.0 61.2 2.7 8.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.7 14.1 15.0 108.2 68.4 56.2 3.6 7.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 31.8 35.8 25.1 136.4 73.3 64.0 7.7 19.6 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.7 19.8 13.1 97.6 64.4 53.4 6.9 11.5 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 28.5 36.0 23.8 130.6 73.1 63.7 9.6 13.4 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.6 16.1 16.8 110.3 63.5 54.8 4.8 9.1 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.7 18.4 15.4 113.0 69.0 57.2 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.8 16.7 13.9 95.4 64.8 54.6 4.8 10.4 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 30.8 43.6 19.2 116.3 68.7 58.1 13.9 24.3 38.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.5 30.2 20.7 111.5 68.5 57.8 6.0 10.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 11.3 27.6 18.8 136.0 76.1 65.5 4.7 8.6 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.6 24.3 20.4 110.2 67.5 55.5 8.1 12.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 21.3 27.6 20.1 117.8 68.8 56.1 3.3 18.1 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 41.4 47.3 24.7 132.0 72.1 63.6 10.8 29.3 37.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.8 26.7 13.7 93.3 64.6 50.9 4.0 16.5 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------