***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.5 27.0 27.1 -0.3 41.6 45.4 26.9 27.1 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.5 27.2 27.4 -0.1 49.1 49.3 26.6 27.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 27.2 26.8 27.3 -0.4 41.9 44.3 26.6 26.8 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.1 25.0 -0.2 45.6 46.5 19.4 20.3 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.3 25.5 -0.3 43.6 44.0 26.6 27.6 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.0 23.4 0.1 51.5 52.7 25.5 26.0 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 27.3 27.1 27.4 -0.1 50.2 50.7 26.5 27.1 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.6 23.7 0.0 47.2 49.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 27.2 26.8 25.9 -0.3 43.0 44.0 26.3 26.9 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 27.1 26.6 24.4 -0.1 46.1 47.7 26.2 26.9 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 27.7 27.2 25.6 -0.1 46.7 47.9 26.3 27.3 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.2 24.9 0.0 48.0 49.9 26.0 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.3 24.8 0.1 48.4 51.5 26.9 27.3 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.6 25.5 -0.2 44.7 46.9 26.1 26.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.0 26.8 -0.2 45.4 46.0 27.7 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.3 27.7 25.2 0.0 47.8 50.1 27.2 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 27.0 26.9 27.3 0.1 56.1 53.8 25.9 26.8 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 26.5 26.1 23.7 -0.1 45.6 48.4 25.6 26.1 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 26.9 26.6 27.3 -0.2 47.6 48.0 25.9 26.7 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.3 21.8 21.6 0.0 49.4 50.8 21.2 21.8 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 27.4 26.9 26.8 -0.4 40.8 42.7 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 27.0 27.0 27.2 0.1 53.4 53.5 26.2 26.8 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 27.0 26.6 27.3 -0.1 47.3 49.4 26.2 26.7 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 26.8 26.2 25.5 -0.2 43.9 46.4 25.7 26.5 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 27.6 26.8 25.6 -0.4 42.3 43.9 26.5 27.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.3 27.5 24.7 0.4 59.9 57.5 26.5 27.0 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 27.0 26.5 26.3 -0.2 43.9 46.3 26.2 26.7 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.9 25.8 -0.1 46.1 47.0 27.4 28.4 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.8 21.3 22.9 -0.1 48.0 49.1 20.8 21.4 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 27.4 26.9 27.3 -0.3 45.9 47.5 26.3 27.1 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------