***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.4 27.5 -0.1 47.7 49.1 27.5 28.4 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.3 27.9 27.9 0.2 49.8 52.1 27.0 27.9 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.4 27.8 -0.1 46.3 48.8 26.8 28.0 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 19.6 20.7 25.8 0.0 46.5 48.9 19.3 21.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 27.0 28.4 26.0 -0.1 47.9 48.2 27.2 28.5 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.0 23.9 0.2 49.0 51.4 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.8 27.9 0.3 50.7 52.8 26.9 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.1 24.5 0.2 51.5 52.0 14.8 17.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 26.7 28.4 26.1 -0.1 49.3 48.5 26.5 28.4 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 28.1 27.5 25.0 0.1 51.7 50.7 26.6 27.5 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.9 25.8 0.1 51.0 51.1 27.0 27.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.8 25.7 0.2 51.4 51.8 26.0 27.5 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.2 24.8 0.2 50.3 51.2 27.0 28.2 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.8 25.9 0.1 53.9 51.6 26.8 27.5 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.4 27.0 0.0 43.9 48.5 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.2 25.5 0.2 50.7 51.5 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.5 28.0 0.5 52.6 55.6 26.4 27.4 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.4 24.4 0.1 52.6 51.2 25.6 27.0 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 27.9 27.4 27.9 0.1 49.6 51.3 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.2 22.3 0.3 54.6 52.8 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.9 27.0 -0.3 47.1 46.8 26.8 27.9 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.9 27.7 0.5 55.7 54.9 26.8 27.8 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.0 27.8 0.2 51.1 51.7 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.1 25.9 0.0 50.7 50.2 26.1 27.1 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.7 25.7 -0.2 48.0 47.2 27.0 27.9 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.5 25.6 0.5 56.6 55.2 26.6 27.9 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.6 26.6 0.0 49.3 49.4 26.5 27.7 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.8 26.3 0.1 45.9 49.3 27.7 29.3 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.1 23.5 0.2 54.3 51.5 21.4 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.9 27.8 0.1 49.1 50.5 26.8 28.0 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------