***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 25.6 27.4 26.6 -0.6 41.5 44.4 25.0 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.3 25.9 26.8 -0.6 42.9 45.2 24.4 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 25.4 25.1 26.6 -0.9 38.9 41.4 24.3 27.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 18.4 20.4 24.3 -0.5 45.0 45.0 17.9 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 25.8 25.9 24.8 -0.8 39.0 42.4 25.2 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 23.9 26.2 22.8 -0.3 47.8 47.3 24.3 26.3 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.0 26.8 -0.5 43.3 46.8 24.3 27.0 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.0 16.1 22.9 -0.6 44.6 45.0 13.6 16.2 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 24.8 25.5 25.4 -0.8 39.1 42.4 24.5 27.1 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.8 25.8 23.7 -0.7 41.1 43.8 24.8 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 25.3 26.9 25.0 -0.7 44.1 44.1 24.6 27.4 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 24.4 26.2 24.2 -0.5 46.6 46.2 24.5 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.2 27.1 24.3 -0.4 44.5 46.6 25.4 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 24.9 25.4 25.0 -0.8 36.9 42.8 24.8 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 26.2 27.9 26.4 -0.4 44.0 45.6 26.3 28.2 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 26.0 28.1 24.6 -0.5 46.1 45.5 25.5 28.3 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.6 26.8 -0.3 47.7 48.6 23.6 26.9 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.4 22.9 -0.7 41.4 44.0 24.1 26.9 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 24.6 24.6 26.8 -0.7 40.7 44.0 24.2 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 20.1 22.1 20.9 -0.5 44.5 45.8 19.8 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 25.2 24.7 26.3 -1.0 37.6 41.0 24.4 27.9 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 25.0 26.1 26.7 -0.3 46.0 48.0 24.3 27.3 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 25.0 25.2 26.7 -0.6 40.5 44.8 24.4 27.4 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 24.5 24.7 25.0 -0.9 38.8 42.4 24.2 26.9 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 25.5 26.3 25.2 -0.7 40.1 43.7 24.4 27.7 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 24.9 27.1 24.0 0.0 52.4 50.5 25.1 27.0 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.1 25.8 25.9 -0.5 41.9 45.5 24.2 27.0 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 26.3 28.2 25.2 -0.5 45.6 45.4 26.7 28.4 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 19.5 20.2 22.2 -0.7 41.9 44.5 19.0 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 25.1 25.6 26.8 -0.7 42.3 44.0 24.4 27.2 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------