***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.2 26.7 26.1 -0.3 52.3 48.9 24.7 26.6 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.9 25.6 26.2 -0.5 54.0 46.9 24.1 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 23.8 25.4 26.3 -0.4 53.0 48.2 24.1 25.0 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.7 23.6 0.1 55.9 53.8 17.5 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.9 24.7 0.0 54.6 52.4 24.8 25.4 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 26.9 26.1 22.8 0.6 66.9 59.3 23.9 25.0 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 23.7 25.6 26.2 -0.3 56.0 48.0 23.9 25.4 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.2 22.7 0.3 62.8 55.7 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.0 25.5 -0.1 54.3 51.5 23.9 24.8 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.8 23.7 0.2 60.9 54.7 24.2 25.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 26.0 26.5 25.2 0.3 59.0 55.1 24.4 25.1 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 26.7 25.7 23.9 0.4 62.0 56.6 24.0 25.0 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 27.8 27.9 24.8 0.6 66.6 59.5 25.0 26.1 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.5 24.8 25.0 -0.2 53.3 49.6 23.7 24.3 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.8 26.3 0.0 52.7 51.6 25.4 26.7 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 28.3 27.9 24.8 0.5 62.4 57.6 25.3 26.7 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 23.3 25.6 25.9 -0.3 58.3 48.9 23.7 25.1 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 23.3 25.8 22.6 0.2 61.9 53.6 23.6 24.4 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.9 26.2 -0.4 54.0 47.1 23.5 24.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 22.7 21.6 20.6 0.2 62.7 54.2 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 24.3 25.5 26.3 -0.2 53.2 50.4 24.3 25.3 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 23.6 25.9 25.9 -0.3 59.3 48.9 24.0 25.5 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.5 26.3 -0.1 57.9 51.2 23.5 25.0 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 23.5 24.6 25.0 0.0 56.8 51.5 23.5 24.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 24.4 25.8 25.2 -0.1 52.5 50.9 24.5 25.8 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 27.5 27.8 23.4 0.7 68.3 60.5 24.9 26.0 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.2 25.6 -0.2 52.5 49.2 23.7 25.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.1 24.9 0.2 56.6 54.7 25.5 26.5 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.7 20.7 21.9 0.2 61.7 53.7 19.1 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.5 25.2 26.2 -0.5 53.2 46.9 23.8 24.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------