***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.4 17.4 0.2 61.3 55.7 14.8 15.1 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.2 17.2 0.2 59.4 56.3 14.4 14.8 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.9 16.9 17.5 0.1 58.6 53.5 16.0 16.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.1 15.0 0.2 57.5 54.8 11.3 11.9 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.8 15.3 0.1 56.6 53.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.9 13.2 0.4 66.2 61.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.4 17.3 0.2 60.4 56.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.9 13.0 0.2 62.9 57.9 6.9 7.6 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.9 15.4 0.1 56.7 53.5 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.8 13.9 0.2 59.4 55.5 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.0 14.9 0.2 58.1 55.1 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.9 13.9 0.2 62.6 57.6 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.4 13.6 0.2 63.0 56.8 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.4 15.2 0.1 57.1 52.8 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.0 16.7 0.2 59.9 55.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.2 14.4 0.2 62.0 57.4 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.7 17.1 0.3 61.4 58.0 15.0 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.3 13.3 0.1 58.8 55.0 12.7 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.1 17.1 0.1 58.7 54.8 14.5 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.7 11.1 0.2 65.8 58.5 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.9 16.8 0.1 55.5 53.1 14.0 14.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.6 14.7 17.0 0.2 60.7 56.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.3 17.0 0.1 58.7 54.5 14.1 14.2 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.2 15.2 0.1 57.0 52.8 14.4 15.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.8 16.1 0.2 61.6 55.9 14.0 14.6 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.0 13.2 0.4 67.7 62.7 13.1 13.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.7 16.8 0.3 63.2 56.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.0 15.6 0.2 59.3 56.3 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.8 12.5 0.1 59.6 54.5 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.4 17.3 0.2 59.7 55.4 14.6 15.2 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------