***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 17.5 0.1 49.6 50.9 15.1 15.6 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.8 17.4 0.3 56.4 55.1 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.4 17.8 0.2 53.8 51.4 16.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.9 12.5 15.2 0.2 51.7 52.5 11.3 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 12.9 14.2 15.2 0.1 50.5 50.8 13.3 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 11.9 13.1 13.4 0.3 52.3 53.5 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 17.6 0.3 56.2 54.2 14.5 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.3 13.3 0.4 56.9 55.0 7.2 7.9 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.2 15.4 0.1 51.8 50.9 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.9 14.1 0.3 53.9 53.2 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 13.7 15.0 14.8 0.3 51.9 53.5 14.0 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.0 14.0 0.3 54.2 54.1 12.1 12.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.2 13.3 0.1 46.8 51.3 13.2 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.6 15.5 0.2 54.5 53.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.6 16.7 0.2 57.8 52.9 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.3 14.3 0.2 50.7 52.8 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.6 17.5 0.5 62.1 58.5 14.8 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 13.6 13.5 0.2 54.8 52.9 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.8 17.5 0.3 55.5 54.5 14.4 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.4 11.1 0.3 56.8 54.1 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.0 15.2 16.8 0.1 50.6 50.0 14.0 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.3 17.3 0.5 62.6 57.6 13.6 14.7 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.0 17.4 0.3 55.6 54.1 13.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.5 15.3 0.2 53.2 52.2 14.1 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.8 16.0 0.1 48.5 51.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.3 13.3 0.3 55.5 55.4 13.1 14.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.0 16.7 0.1 50.2 51.1 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.1 15.7 0.2 54.6 52.8 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.8 12.4 12.8 0.2 56.2 53.1 11.4 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.2 17.6 0.3 54.7 53.2 14.3 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------