***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 17.2 0.2 51.4 52.8 14.1 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.8 17.1 0.2 52.9 53.3 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.3 17.4 0.1 49.1 51.5 14.9 16.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.6 14.9 0.3 53.7 53.6 9.6 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.1 15.3 0.2 51.1 52.5 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.7 13.0 0.4 61.5 56.4 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.5 17.2 0.2 53.4 54.2 13.7 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 7.6 7.7 12.9 0.2 56.4 53.0 6.3 7.4 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.4 15.6 0.3 56.0 53.5 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.6 13.9 0.2 55.9 53.0 13.1 14.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.3 15.0 0.3 53.4 53.1 13.1 14.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.1 13.8 0.2 53.9 52.2 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.8 13.6 0.2 55.0 53.7 12.7 13.7 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.6 15.3 0.1 50.9 51.7 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.9 16.8 0.4 58.8 56.2 14.8 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.6 14.4 14.4 0.3 54.4 53.6 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.5 17.0 0.3 57.1 55.1 14.3 14.7 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.9 13.3 0.2 54.8 52.5 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.1 17.1 0.1 50.5 52.3 13.7 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.9 8.9 11.1 0.2 56.6 53.4 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.4 16.8 0.2 50.8 52.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.2 17.0 0.3 55.0 53.9 13.3 14.0 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.5 17.0 0.1 49.0 52.2 12.8 13.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.6 15.3 0.1 52.1 52.2 13.6 14.5 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.3 16.2 0.2 54.2 53.5 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.2 13.1 0.3 53.9 53.5 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.9 16.7 0.3 54.7 53.9 13.3 13.7 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.8 15.6 0.4 58.0 55.5 12.4 13.2 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.3 12.5 0.2 54.3 52.3 9.8 11.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.7 17.3 0.1 51.6 52.6 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------