***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.7 16.8 0.4 64.5 58.7 13.8 14.3 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.5 16.2 -0.1 55.5 52.7 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.3 16.7 0.1 59.9 55.2 14.6 15.7 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.7 14.4 0.2 59.7 57.5 9.3 10.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.4 15.1 0.2 59.9 57.5 11.9 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.8 12.6 0.5 63.3 63.1 10.8 11.7 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.4 16.3 -0.1 57.2 52.7 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.8 12.2 0.1 57.6 56.2 5.2 6.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 14.1 14.1 15.0 0.0 55.1 53.8 13.1 13.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 13.8 13.8 13.2 0.0 55.9 54.2 13.0 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.0 14.5 0.0 54.1 53.1 13.0 13.7 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.9 13.4 0.2 58.5 58.1 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.9 13.6 0.2 58.8 57.8 12.5 13.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.6 14.4 -0.2 52.7 51.7 13.5 14.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.1 16.4 0.2 59.0 57.9 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.7 14.2 0.3 61.0 58.4 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.8 15.9 -0.2 53.3 49.9 13.3 14.8 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.8 12.5 -0.1 54.5 53.0 11.7 12.5 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.3 16.1 -0.1 54.8 52.4 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.2 8.4 10.7 0.2 59.7 57.4 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.8 14.0 16.4 0.1 59.1 55.4 13.1 13.5 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.8 15.9 -0.3 53.4 50.2 12.6 13.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.9 13.8 16.0 -0.1 57.4 53.5 12.7 13.7 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.4 14.6 -0.2 54.5 51.9 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.4 16.1 0.5 66.1 59.7 12.7 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 13.6 13.7 12.9 0.5 65.2 63.7 11.7 12.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.2 16.5 0.5 65.3 59.9 12.2 13.7 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.5 15.1 0.3 62.5 60.1 12.0 12.7 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.9 10.7 11.6 -0.1 52.8 51.9 9.3 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.7 16.5 0.0 59.4 54.3 12.9 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------