***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 35.4 43.6 42.8 67.1 32.0 32.3 44.0 50.8 63.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 44.3 53.9 41.9 74.7 38.6 36.0 51.9 63.5 71.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 49.3 60.2 44.7 73.1 36.8 35.4 55.6 67.9 82.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 38.4 52.0 47.4 79.1 42.2 38.1 42.9 61.8 91.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 39.3 47.5 44.1 76.0 38.6 36.8 42.4 56.7 69.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 35.4 45.7 57.2 87.5 49.4 43.3 32.8 46.6 57.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 42.7 46.2 40.9 72.4 36.6 35.0 42.9 61.0 71.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 51.9 63.2 54.4 83.7 45.2 40.6 52.5 65.1 111.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 39.5 44.6 46.0 74.3 34.1 35.1 44.3 55.8 73.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 57.7 62.9 56.0 79.0 39.3 37.5 54.8 86.3 92.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 33.7 41.6 44.3 78.4 41.7 37.8 34.7 49.3 70.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 33.1 49.4 44.7 82.7 46.6 41.1 32.1 51.5 65.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.3 32.2 42.5 74.2 39.3 36.8 27.1 37.3 56.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 65.0 64.6 60.5 78.0 37.7 36.4 63.1 89.3 104.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 22.7 35.4 41.7 79.4 44.8 38.1 24.4 41.5 69.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 27.6 42.6 44.0 79.2 43.8 38.7 30.7 45.2 52.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 31.7 36.5 39.4 69.6 32.3 32.9 38.1 55.0 72.2 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 47.0 54.3 64.6 82.7 40.0 40.0 49.9 65.6 91.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 49.8 61.1 44.1 76.4 39.0 36.5 52.4 70.8 84.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 67.6 58.5 66.4 90.4 49.4 45.0 51.5 58.7 79.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 41.3 42.3 44.2 72.3 34.4 34.5 42.1 58.9 69.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 38.8 42.4 41.8 70.1 34.4 33.3 42.3 51.3 62.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 47.2 55.7 47.7 78.0 38.5 36.5 54.1 61.2 86.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 65.0 73.1 55.4 77.3 37.6 36.9 71.2 80.5 106.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 42.1 45.5 47.3 70.3 35.4 34.0 43.3 61.6 81.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 32.2 41.4 37.9 78.1 43.8 39.0 31.9 47.9 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 46.6 53.0 46.2 67.0 31.4 32.4 57.0 77.7 81.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 30.8 43.8 46.8 83.4 47.7 39.8 26.5 45.6 56.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 100.8 73.8 67.2 85.6 43.2 42.0 61.9 90.4 116.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 54.7 62.6 43.1 75.3 38.8 36.7 57.8 68.9 76.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------