***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 17.7 14.1 124.3 71.5 52.6 2.0 5.2 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.9 22.3 13.3 138.1 76.2 53.6 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.2 17.7 13.8 121.1 70.6 50.4 3.3 9.8 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.4 14.5 12.4 116.9 69.4 51.4 1.9 4.5 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 15.1 12.0 116.4 67.8 52.0 2.0 9.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 10.6 15.3 124.8 72.1 54.2 2.0 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.6 27.0 13.4 138.9 76.8 52.9 7.0 12.2 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.9 22.2 13.7 116.0 65.4 53.8 9.4 12.5 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.4 16.1 13.0 115.0 66.1 51.8 2.2 7.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.7 18.6 15.0 113.8 64.7 52.5 5.3 10.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.4 11.4 117.0 68.7 53.3 3.6 5.9 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.0 11.4 117.8 69.6 54.0 3.5 6.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.0 8.0 11.5 110.9 71.1 51.4 1.6 4.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.1 27.4 18.1 129.0 69.8 51.2 4.7 13.3 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 7.9 11.6 133.7 76.4 54.3 0.7 2.3 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.9 11.2 110.5 69.6 51.0 2.4 5.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.7 12.6 12.6 121.5 71.8 50.7 2.1 4.7 11.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 12.9 17.2 115.4 66.0 51.2 5.7 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.7 23.5 13.9 137.9 74.6 53.1 5.4 8.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 18.0 17.3 118.9 66.8 53.5 8.2 11.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.4 13.4 12.9 115.2 67.9 50.4 4.6 8.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 16.4 12.6 111.9 66.9 49.6 4.0 9.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.2 26.4 15.1 140.3 73.2 52.3 4.4 10.6 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.9 15.8 15.7 120.1 67.5 50.1 7.0 11.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 20.1 14.9 126.6 71.8 53.4 3.2 6.4 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.1 9.2 118.6 72.9 54.1 2.6 4.5 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.7 15.4 129.6 72.3 53.0 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.7 12.2 12.2 121.6 71.7 53.1 1.2 3.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.2 24.5 17.8 119.5 67.4 52.5 10.0 14.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.7 13.6 137.6 75.0 53.4 6.2 8.8 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------