***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.5 14.2 11.1 81.5 55.7 47.3 9.1 14.1 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.8 11.6 96.9 62.2 49.1 8.3 13.8 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.2 16.4 11.9 88.8 57.4 49.5 7.9 13.2 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 15.3 13.1 100.7 64.1 50.2 5.9 9.9 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.4 12.3 11.7 91.6 59.8 50.2 3.8 6.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.6 13.2 90.8 60.7 49.7 4.1 5.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.9 10.9 11.4 93.8 60.9 48.8 5.8 8.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.1 20.8 13.8 99.9 61.3 52.1 10.1 18.3 36.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.6 12.0 85.4 59.3 47.7 4.1 8.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.5 14.3 89.9 57.2 48.9 5.0 10.1 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.5 10.5 91.7 59.7 50.2 2.9 7.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.8 11.1 96.3 61.6 52.3 4.4 12.3 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.6 10.4 87.6 58.3 46.3 2.6 6.9 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.9 19.5 16.2 88.0 56.2 47.8 8.4 15.5 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 8.0 11.1 98.8 65.0 48.9 0.1 2.5 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.8 10.5 89.9 60.7 47.6 1.2 4.2 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.0 16.2 11.2 96.4 61.2 48.1 4.8 10.8 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.7 17.9 16.5 88.2 55.5 49.1 11.0 15.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.8 11.7 95.3 61.1 49.2 7.2 10.3 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.9 21.4 17.2 103.7 62.1 52.7 8.9 17.5 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.8 11.0 81.3 57.5 47.3 7.0 9.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.4 14.9 11.7 92.7 60.2 46.9 8.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.8 12.9 11.8 88.9 58.1 49.2 7.2 9.7 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.9 21.4 14.6 87.7 56.7 49.1 9.6 19.6 33.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.9 12.4 84.1 56.8 47.4 7.3 10.8 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 15.4 8.5 91.7 66.3 53.0 3.1 6.2 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.1 17.3 12.8 83.4 57.0 46.8 7.3 14.1 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.6 12.5 101.0 65.3 50.8 2.0 4.6 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 27.4 24.9 17.5 93.6 57.6 50.8 12.6 22.0 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.6 21.8 11.9 95.7 61.6 49.5 8.9 16.7 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------