***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.0 9.5 9.4 57.2 43.6 35.9 5.4 11.0 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.2 12.3 9.4 64.3 48.0 42.4 5.6 13.4 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.1 9.8 10.2 63.2 46.5 39.2 7.1 11.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.4 12.1 78.0 53.8 41.1 4.1 5.6 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.3 11.9 78.2 53.1 42.1 2.5 10.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.7 14.8 14.3 89.9 56.5 47.2 4.4 11.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.5 8.5 9.3 59.8 46.6 39.6 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 16.1 14.0 93.3 57.8 49.4 2.6 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.3 11.3 72.2 50.2 39.7 3.9 9.2 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 12.0 14.2 85.3 53.9 45.7 4.0 9.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 7.9 12.8 82.6 50.9 43.2 2.5 7.6 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.0 12.2 88.0 55.9 47.3 2.0 8.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.5 10.3 71.3 53.5 41.6 2.5 7.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.9 14.9 14.5 79.2 52.4 43.6 6.7 13.8 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.0 7.7 10.2 70.5 54.2 40.2 1.4 4.4 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.0 11.4 77.5 53.2 40.2 3.6 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.3 9.0 60.7 44.4 38.3 3.0 8.3 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 11.3 16.3 89.3 56.9 48.4 1.6 6.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.5 9.0 9.8 66.7 48.8 43.0 3.6 9.5 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 15.1 16.0 95.8 59.1 50.5 5.8 11.9 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.2 9.7 10.5 63.9 48.2 36.5 1.1 10.0 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.4 9.8 64.3 44.9 39.7 4.0 8.9 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.2 12.8 10.5 69.1 50.6 41.7 9.0 12.7 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.3 20.9 13.7 75.9 51.6 43.0 3.1 17.4 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.9 7.5 11.7 65.4 46.2 38.0 4.8 9.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.8 16.8 12.9 99.6 61.0 50.9 4.5 10.8 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.7 6.8 10.5 57.0 41.4 34.5 5.6 12.3 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.4 11.9 84.5 58.2 43.4 1.8 6.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.0 17.6 93.1 58.1 49.9 5.9 13.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.1 8.6 9.7 63.4 48.0 42.1 6.4 9.0 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------