***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 4.1 2.6 8.2 36.5 27.8 25.2 2.7 16.4 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 5.2 7.0 7.6 38.3 29.3 25.3 7.4 20.1 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 7.4 8.3 8.9 43.9 34.2 28.4 8.3 21.6 35.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 7.8 11.4 9.8 47.2 33.6 29.8 11.1 21.4 37.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 4.6 5.6 8.6 43.2 31.1 27.4 5.8 18.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.9 4.5 14.4 64.4 40.0 36.8 3.1 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 4.9 5.8 6.8 35.5 28.0 23.6 6.1 10.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 9.6 10.4 12.8 52.9 30.6 29.9 10.8 17.0 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 6.2 10.9 9.7 46.6 32.9 29.3 10.9 21.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 8.2 7.2 12.5 49.9 30.2 28.7 12.8 23.1 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 5.0 8.2 9.6 48.6 35.2 30.6 8.0 12.8 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.9 4.0 10.0 52.8 35.6 32.0 3.6 6.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 3.0 5.6 10.3 50.0 35.6 30.6 5.0 10.2 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 10.1 11.8 11.7 43.7 30.5 26.7 12.1 22.3 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 3.4 3.4 8.8 48.9 39.6 32.7 2.5 12.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.8 4.1 11.0 57.3 41.9 34.1 3.5 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 3.7 3.2 6.5 33.3 26.6 23.0 3.6 9.7 17.2 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 8.5 9.3 14.7 56.0 33.1 30.4 9.2 18.3 31.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 10.1 11.4 8.7 42.2 31.5 27.7 12.2 19.2 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.3 9.8 15.8 63.0 35.7 34.4 8.6 15.3 31.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 6.0 10.7 9.8 49.1 34.6 29.9 9.4 13.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 4.4 5.1 7.7 37.5 29.2 25.7 7.2 9.6 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 5.5 8.5 10.3 47.0 33.9 29.9 8.1 15.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 14.6 12.0 11.3 47.7 32.1 28.4 12.3 27.0 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 3.6 5.1 8.3 36.4 27.1 24.6 6.7 10.9 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.0 4.7 7.3 39.3 29.8 26.4 5.1 8.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 4.2 7.1 7.5 32.4 24.9 22.7 9.3 14.3 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 4.7 8.4 10.2 52.0 37.8 32.3 6.7 15.4 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 13.8 14.8 14.3 55.0 30.7 30.0 19.6 30.0 36.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 5.9 6.5 7.9 40.1 31.5 26.1 6.7 18.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------