***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 28.5 29.6 28.8 2.2 86.4 80.6 26.7 27.2 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 28.5 29.6 29.3 2.8 90.9 85.2 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 28.2 29.5 28.9 2.1 86.0 79.1 26.7 26.9 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 21.3 22.0 26.0 1.6 81.3 74.4 19.5 20.3 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.2 26.4 1.4 77.3 72.1 26.9 27.4 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.9 23.2 0.5 64.3 59.7 25.6 26.1 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 28.0 29.1 29.0 2.4 89.7 82.3 26.5 27.0 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 16.8 16.5 24.0 0.9 69.9 65.7 15.0 15.6 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 28.3 29.3 27.1 1.7 83.0 75.6 26.5 27.0 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 27.9 27.8 25.1 1.2 75.0 69.2 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 28.5 28.7 26.4 1.4 76.6 72.3 26.4 27.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 27.4 27.6 25.4 1.1 72.8 68.4 26.0 26.4 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.8 28.1 24.8 0.7 66.6 62.5 26.9 27.5 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 27.5 28.1 26.2 1.4 79.4 72.1 26.2 26.7 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 29.2 30.2 28.1 2.0 88.6 79.6 27.6 28.2 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 29.2 29.5 25.7 1.2 72.8 68.5 27.3 27.9 28.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 27.8 29.1 29.0 2.8 92.6 85.5 25.8 26.6 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.0 24.0 0.9 70.6 64.7 25.6 26.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 27.9 29.5 29.4 2.8 91.1 85.7 25.8 26.7 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.2 22.1 21.3 0.4 60.5 57.5 21.4 21.8 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 28.2 29.0 27.9 1.6 81.1 73.6 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 28.1 29.9 28.7 2.7 91.7 84.4 26.2 26.8 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 28.1 29.8 29.2 2.8 90.9 85.3 26.1 26.8 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 27.5 28.1 26.3 1.3 78.6 71.1 25.9 26.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.7 26.8 1.6 81.2 74.2 26.5 27.4 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.1 24.7 1.0 70.6 67.3 26.5 27.0 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 27.7 29.4 27.7 1.9 84.2 77.7 26.2 26.8 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 29.2 29.7 26.6 1.6 81.0 73.9 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.8 22.1 22.9 0.6 65.8 61.0 20.9 21.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 28.1 29.5 29.2 2.5 89.0 83.3 26.1 27.1 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------