***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.8 29.4 29.2 1.6 68.1 62.5 27.8 28.4 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.5 29.5 1.9 72.9 65.7 27.0 28.7 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.6 29.4 1.6 69.8 62.1 27.0 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.8 22.7 27.1 1.4 68.0 60.6 20.5 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.6 27.2 1.2 63.9 58.8 28.2 28.9 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 25.9 27.9 24.4 0.6 59.6 55.5 25.8 27.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.7 29.1 29.3 1.7 71.4 64.5 27.0 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.8 25.0 0.7 59.3 56.0 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.5 29.4 27.5 1.3 66.4 59.5 27.6 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.9 25.8 1.0 62.4 57.2 27.4 28.1 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.8 29.4 26.9 1.2 65.4 59.4 27.8 28.4 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.9 26.4 0.9 60.0 57.2 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.4 29.2 25.3 0.5 56.9 54.2 27.4 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.2 26.4 0.8 58.5 56.0 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.3 28.5 1.7 73.8 64.2 28.2 29.4 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.3 26.5 1.0 62.5 58.0 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 29.2 28.9 29.2 1.8 74.1 65.7 26.6 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.4 24.8 0.6 56.9 54.0 26.4 27.0 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 28.6 29.0 29.5 1.9 73.6 65.5 27.0 27.9 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.4 22.0 0.1 52.4 50.7 21.5 22.1 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.7 29.0 28.3 1.1 62.8 58.4 27.7 28.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.9 28.9 1.7 74.5 64.6 27.4 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.4 29.2 29.3 1.8 72.0 64.4 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.0 26.6 0.9 61.1 56.8 27.0 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.2 27.2 1.2 63.5 59.2 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 28.7 29.3 26.2 1.1 63.8 59.7 26.7 28.3 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.6 29.0 28.2 1.4 66.7 61.3 27.1 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 29.8 31.1 27.5 1.4 69.3 61.5 28.6 29.2 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.3 23.6 0.3 53.0 51.7 21.4 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.6 29.4 29.4 1.8 71.9 64.5 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------