***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 29.8 31.1 29.5 2.9 88.1 75.5 27.0 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 29.2 30.6 29.7 3.2 89.0 76.3 26.7 27.1 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.3 31.3 29.8 2.9 87.1 74.4 26.8 27.1 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 22.4 23.5 27.5 2.6 83.6 74.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 30.2 31.4 27.6 2.4 80.2 71.8 27.0 28.0 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 28.5 29.5 24.6 1.7 74.7 67.2 25.8 26.6 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 28.9 30.3 29.5 3.0 87.0 74.7 26.7 27.3 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.8 18.5 25.3 1.8 73.7 66.6 14.7 16.5 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.8 27.9 2.5 81.8 72.5 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 29.3 30.3 26.2 2.1 77.3 68.9 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 30.0 31.3 27.3 2.4 81.1 71.8 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.9 26.7 2.0 76.2 68.6 25.4 27.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.6 25.5 1.6 69.7 65.5 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.7 26.7 1.9 77.1 67.3 26.5 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 30.5 31.9 28.9 3.0 87.5 78.1 27.6 28.0 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 30.8 32.0 26.7 2.2 77.7 70.2 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 28.6 29.9 29.4 3.1 88.7 75.5 26.3 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.7 28.3 25.1 1.6 70.8 64.9 25.4 26.9 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.7 29.9 3.3 89.3 76.5 26.5 26.9 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.9 22.2 0.9 63.3 59.5 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 29.6 30.9 28.6 2.4 81.3 71.7 26.5 27.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 28.9 30.5 29.1 3.0 88.2 74.5 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.9 29.6 3.1 88.1 75.3 26.6 27.2 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 28.9 29.6 26.9 2.0 77.3 68.4 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 29.9 30.8 27.5 2.4 82.9 72.6 26.4 27.5 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 29.5 30.5 26.3 2.2 77.1 70.7 26.7 27.3 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 28.8 31.1 28.5 2.7 86.2 74.1 26.3 27.1 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.6 27.9 2.7 84.2 74.6 27.9 28.7 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 23.9 23.0 23.8 1.2 66.4 61.6 20.4 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.4 29.7 3.1 88.0 75.6 26.7 27.3 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------