***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 29.4 30.2 29.0 2.6 79.6 73.7 26.0 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 29.0 30.0 29.7 3.4 85.5 78.8 24.6 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 28.9 29.3 29.0 2.4 77.4 72.1 24.5 27.2 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.1 22.1 25.7 1.6 73.9 66.3 18.3 20.5 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 28.9 29.0 26.4 1.5 70.6 65.4 25.4 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.6 22.9 0.3 58.6 53.8 24.4 26.2 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 29.0 30.0 29.4 3.1 83.0 77.0 24.5 26.7 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.0 24.0 1.1 67.9 62.1 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 28.6 28.5 27.4 1.9 74.3 68.6 24.7 27.5 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 28.3 28.2 25.2 1.4 69.9 64.4 24.7 26.9 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 28.4 28.5 26.5 1.5 71.8 65.7 25.2 27.5 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 27.9 27.8 25.3 1.3 70.7 63.7 24.7 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 28.8 28.6 24.9 0.8 64.6 58.5 25.4 27.3 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 29.2 28.4 26.5 1.6 69.4 66.1 24.1 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 29.9 30.8 28.1 2.0 79.5 70.1 26.7 28.0 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.3 25.6 1.2 69.3 62.4 25.9 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 28.3 30.2 29.6 3.5 87.0 79.7 23.7 26.6 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 27.5 27.4 24.1 1.2 65.7 61.8 23.9 26.3 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 28.3 30.2 29.7 3.4 85.8 78.5 23.9 26.5 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.6 21.4 0.6 58.5 57.0 19.8 22.1 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 29.0 28.9 28.0 1.8 72.3 67.2 24.6 27.5 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 28.7 31.0 29.2 3.4 87.4 79.1 24.0 26.8 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 28.7 30.1 29.4 3.2 84.2 77.2 23.9 26.9 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 28.2 28.0 26.5 1.6 69.8 65.7 23.7 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 29.2 28.8 26.9 1.8 73.3 67.8 24.8 27.4 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 28.8 28.0 24.3 0.9 67.2 60.2 24.8 27.1 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 28.5 28.7 27.9 2.2 76.9 71.3 24.0 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 29.9 30.3 26.5 1.5 74.3 65.6 26.7 28.5 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 22.9 22.7 23.0 0.9 62.6 59.5 18.6 21.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 28.9 29.8 29.5 3.1 83.1 76.9 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------