***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 28.7 28.8 27.4 1.7 73.5 72.0 24.7 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 28.6 29.2 28.3 2.5 80.0 77.9 24.2 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 27.7 28.3 27.3 1.6 72.5 70.3 24.6 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 19.6 20.5 23.8 0.9 65.0 62.9 17.7 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 26.4 27.0 24.6 0.7 61.2 60.2 25.0 26.0 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 25.9 25.2 21.0 -0.5 45.7 44.2 24.1 25.6 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 28.0 28.3 27.6 1.8 76.2 73.0 24.1 25.6 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.3 21.7 0.2 55.6 54.0 13.1 14.7 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 27.4 27.4 25.9 1.1 66.8 65.8 24.4 25.3 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 25.8 26.0 23.2 0.5 58.5 57.9 24.7 25.3 26.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 26.3 26.6 24.8 0.6 60.0 59.0 25.0 25.9 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 25.7 25.5 23.1 0.4 58.0 56.4 24.3 25.4 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 26.9 26.8 23.6 0.0 53.1 51.6 25.4 26.5 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 26.9 27.1 25.4 1.3 68.5 67.0 23.7 24.7 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 28.6 28.5 26.8 1.2 69.5 67.0 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 27.5 27.5 23.9 0.3 56.9 55.6 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 27.9 28.6 27.9 2.6 80.6 78.5 23.7 24.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 25.4 25.6 22.0 0.3 57.6 56.1 23.7 25.1 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 27.6 28.5 28.4 2.8 81.4 79.5 23.8 24.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 21.5 21.3 19.7 0.0 54.1 52.8 19.4 21.2 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 27.5 26.9 26.5 0.9 65.6 63.5 24.7 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 28.0 28.9 27.7 2.6 80.6 78.2 23.9 25.3 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 28.2 29.0 28.4 3.0 82.6 80.7 24.1 25.4 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 25.1 26.5 25.0 0.9 65.2 63.0 24.0 24.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 26.6 27.9 25.5 0.8 65.4 62.6 25.1 26.2 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 26.6 26.3 21.9 -0.1 50.9 49.6 25.1 26.3 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 27.1 27.5 26.4 1.2 68.9 67.0 24.1 25.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 27.6 27.7 24.7 0.7 62.2 60.4 25.8 27.1 27.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 20.4 20.5 21.1 0.2 56.1 54.9 19.4 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 28.0 28.5 28.1 2.2 77.8 75.9 24.0 25.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------