***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.5 17.2 0.8 72.8 68.8 14.8 15.2 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.1 17.4 1.1 81.8 75.2 14.3 14.7 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 17.5 17.6 17.4 0.9 75.6 70.1 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 12.6 12.4 14.7 0.5 70.8 64.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.2 14.7 0.4 68.1 61.6 13.1 13.7 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.7 12.3 0.1 58.4 53.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.7 16.1 17.4 1.1 80.3 73.4 14.5 15.2 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.9 12.1 0.2 60.2 54.7 7.0 7.6 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.4 15.0 0.5 70.0 64.4 14.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.9 13.2 0.3 63.1 57.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.1 14.2 0.4 69.9 61.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.9 13.0 0.3 64.2 57.8 11.8 12.7 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.2 12.6 0.0 55.4 50.1 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.6 14.8 0.4 68.8 61.3 14.7 15.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.5 16.2 0.6 73.0 66.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.4 13.6 0.3 64.8 58.3 14.1 14.9 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.1 16.6 17.3 1.2 83.2 75.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.7 12.4 0.2 62.2 56.9 12.7 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 15.6 16.1 17.5 1.3 82.8 77.2 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.4 10.2 0.2 59.7 54.6 8.6 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.3 16.2 0.5 69.2 63.2 14.2 14.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 14.9 15.7 17.3 1.3 84.6 77.4 14.0 14.6 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 14.8 15.3 17.4 1.3 83.9 78.4 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.4 14.7 0.4 68.6 62.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.9 15.5 0.3 65.0 57.9 14.1 14.7 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.9 12.3 0.3 61.1 57.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.0 16.4 0.6 70.2 64.6 14.0 14.6 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.3 15.1 0.6 71.7 65.0 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.7 11.6 0.2 61.3 55.4 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 15.7 16.2 17.6 1.1 80.5 74.1 14.5 15.2 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------