***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.8 17.8 1.0 68.0 61.4 15.0 15.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.8 18.0 1.2 71.2 63.5 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.0 18.0 0.9 65.0 60.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.4 15.4 0.8 64.5 59.1 11.7 12.8 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.8 15.2 0.7 62.4 58.8 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.5 13.2 0.4 59.7 56.0 12.6 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.7 18.1 1.2 72.5 63.3 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.7 8.7 12.8 0.4 58.0 55.1 7.5 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.9 15.5 0.7 63.7 59.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.5 13.8 0.5 59.7 55.9 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.6 14.7 0.7 63.5 59.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.4 13.7 0.5 60.9 57.7 12.1 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.1 13.1 0.3 58.5 55.1 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.6 15.1 0.3 55.5 53.2 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.2 16.9 1.0 69.0 62.5 15.8 16.2 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 14.1 0.6 62.1 58.6 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.3 17.0 17.9 1.1 71.0 63.1 15.3 16.1 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.7 12.8 0.2 56.6 53.2 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.3 18.0 1.2 70.6 63.8 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.2 10.5 0.1 54.1 51.6 8.5 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.4 16.0 16.8 0.7 62.6 58.6 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.6 17.7 1.1 69.2 63.4 14.5 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.9 17.8 1.1 69.3 63.3 14.4 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.4 15.0 0.4 59.2 55.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.8 16.1 0.6 61.7 57.5 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.4 15.0 13.1 0.7 64.1 61.1 13.3 14.1 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.4 17.1 0.9 67.1 60.7 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.9 15.8 0.8 66.1 60.5 13.9 14.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.6 12.1 0.1 53.4 51.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.7 18.2 1.1 70.1 62.8 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------