***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.6 18.2 1.8 83.2 74.1 14.7 15.0 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 15.8 17.7 18.3 2.0 87.1 75.5 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 17.8 19.3 18.4 1.8 86.6 75.1 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.4 14.5 15.6 1.5 81.6 71.7 10.6 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.3 15.2 15.4 1.3 80.5 70.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.0 13.6 13.3 1.0 74.6 66.8 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.1 17.4 18.3 2.0 87.9 75.1 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.0 9.1 12.7 0.7 70.9 62.7 6.7 7.6 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.6 16.3 15.7 1.4 82.9 71.4 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.8 13.8 1.0 75.9 66.0 14.1 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.9 14.7 1.2 77.8 69.6 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.9 13.6 0.9 72.8 65.6 11.7 12.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.8 13.2 0.9 72.4 65.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.4 17.1 15.5 1.2 79.2 68.8 14.6 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.5 17.1 17.1 1.6 85.0 74.2 15.4 16.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 15.5 16.1 14.3 1.2 77.1 69.5 13.8 14.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.4 18.1 18.1 1.9 86.9 74.8 14.5 15.4 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 14.9 12.9 0.8 73.9 63.7 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.1 17.4 18.3 2.0 88.3 76.2 14.1 15.1 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.4 10.5 0.6 67.8 59.4 8.5 8.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.6 16.3 17.0 1.4 81.1 71.2 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 15.7 17.3 17.9 1.9 88.2 75.0 13.7 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.6 17.4 18.1 1.9 89.0 76.6 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.8 15.3 1.2 80.9 69.1 14.3 14.8 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.9 16.4 1.4 78.5 69.1 13.8 14.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.5 14.9 13.2 1.1 78.8 68.7 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 15.5 17.2 17.3 1.7 82.9 72.3 13.3 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.9 16.0 1.5 82.2 72.8 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.2 12.1 0.7 70.9 61.5 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.4 17.6 18.4 1.9 87.5 75.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------