***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.1 16.9 0.7 65.1 60.9 14.2 14.6 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.7 17.3 1.2 73.0 67.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 17.2 17.3 17.3 0.9 67.4 63.5 15.1 16.3 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.3 14.2 0.3 56.8 55.2 9.9 11.3 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.1 14.5 0.3 57.6 55.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.1 11.8 -0.1 50.1 48.0 11.3 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.9 17.2 1.1 70.7 66.6 13.9 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.6 11.6 -0.1 51.7 48.7 6.3 7.5 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.6 14.8 0.4 59.7 57.7 13.0 14.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.5 12.8 0.1 55.3 52.3 12.8 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.4 13.9 0.2 56.6 53.4 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.8 12.6 -0.1 51.7 49.6 11.3 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.4 12.4 -0.1 47.9 47.4 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.2 14.6 0.5 62.2 58.5 13.9 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.6 15.8 0.4 59.0 56.4 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.5 13.3 0.1 52.2 51.0 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.4 17.1 1.3 73.6 67.8 14.2 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.0 12.1 0.1 55.4 52.3 11.6 12.9 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.7 17.4 1.4 74.6 69.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.6 10.0 0.0 53.8 49.9 7.7 8.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.7 16.0 0.4 59.9 57.3 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.4 17.2 1.4 74.0 69.7 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.8 15.0 17.3 1.4 74.6 70.1 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.0 14.5 0.5 61.5 58.0 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.2 15.3 0.1 54.6 53.4 12.8 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 12.0 0.0 54.0 50.7 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.6 16.1 0.4 60.1 57.5 12.8 13.6 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.8 14.7 0.3 58.2 55.8 12.3 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.3 11.3 0.0 53.8 51.0 10.1 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.8 17.4 1.1 71.1 66.4 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------