***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 14.8 14.5 15.8 -0.3 47.5 46.9 14.0 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.4 16.1 0.2 58.0 57.0 13.0 14.0 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 15.9 15.7 16.1 -0.1 51.0 50.8 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.1 13.4 -0.3 42.6 44.8 9.3 10.7 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.5 13.8 -0.5 39.4 40.8 12.1 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 10.7 11.0 10.8 -0.7 31.7 35.4 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.4 16.0 0.1 54.4 54.5 13.2 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.1 11.2 -0.3 43.5 45.6 5.1 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 14.3 13.5 14.1 -0.3 42.0 43.7 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.3 12.3 -0.3 42.8 44.8 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.2 13.5 -0.3 43.5 44.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.1 11.7 12.3 -0.2 44.5 46.2 10.8 11.9 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.3 12.1 11.8 -0.9 28.5 30.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.6 13.9 -0.2 48.0 48.2 13.4 14.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.3 14.9 -0.5 36.4 39.5 14.3 14.9 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.2 12.7 -0.6 36.6 38.3 13.1 13.7 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.0 16.1 0.4 62.7 60.3 13.4 14.6 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.5 12.1 11.7 -0.2 46.3 47.4 11.8 12.3 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.9 16.4 0.5 64.4 62.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.2 9.8 0.0 48.1 49.3 7.6 8.2 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 14.1 13.4 15.1 -0.5 40.7 42.0 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.9 16.4 0.7 68.7 65.9 12.8 13.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.8 16.5 0.9 70.8 67.4 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 14.3 14.0 13.8 -0.3 45.1 46.3 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.0 14.3 -0.9 33.4 34.7 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 11.7 11.8 10.9 -0.8 30.2 33.2 11.9 12.4 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.9 12.8 15.0 -0.6 40.0 40.4 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.2 13.8 -0.4 38.9 41.8 12.1 13.1 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 10.6 10.2 11.0 -0.1 47.6 49.3 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.8 16.3 0.2 57.1 56.7 13.2 14.3 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------