***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 64.2 67.2 75.9 120.2 67.1 59.3 48.1 53.8 63.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 49.6 72.9 63.3 109.8 61.5 54.4 53.1 65.3 74.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 53.6 82.6 71.7 117.1 66.7 57.9 51.4 69.7 82.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 86.3 119.7 82.8 146.3 81.8 69.0 43.2 53.6 91.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 75.1 81.5 75.0 131.6 74.3 64.6 40.6 53.2 68.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 71.0 77.7 85.3 133.2 75.1 67.4 35.1 49.3 59.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 47.9 69.8 61.9 105.8 59.2 51.1 51.5 63.1 74.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 119.2 130.8 84.4 130.2 74.7 65.4 55.6 64.5 115.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 79.8 79.9 78.1 126.0 69.2 63.3 44.7 55.6 74.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 104.5 95.4 84.9 121.3 68.1 60.9 59.3 83.8 94.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 73.8 82.7 73.1 132.6 75.2 64.9 34.7 52.0 74.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 74.0 79.6 73.0 135.2 76.7 66.1 32.1 51.7 65.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 58.5 64.9 75.8 132.8 74.9 65.0 28.9 39.8 57.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 98.6 105.3 89.2 115.1 67.7 59.1 63.1 90.3 101.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 67.2 87.5 72.9 156.5 83.4 71.3 26.8 41.9 63.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 62.1 60.3 73.5 137.1 76.0 66.2 32.0 43.9 54.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 37.6 61.8 59.0 100.8 54.6 48.7 38.2 55.0 73.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 77.6 98.4 94.1 119.9 68.3 61.5 49.8 67.0 92.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 53.1 86.0 66.0 114.0 65.3 56.7 51.0 70.2 86.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 83.7 92.9 94.2 127.3 74.1 66.2 50.4 59.5 81.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 68.4 75.3 76.6 124.1 68.1 61.0 41.6 59.6 69.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 45.2 60.9 63.4 106.5 59.7 51.5 42.9 57.1 66.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 83.4 87.5 71.3 119.6 70.4 60.5 52.8 62.9 86.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 91.0 110.9 84.9 120.4 68.0 60.4 72.1 78.3 106.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 66.3 82.6 82.1 121.9 67.3 59.4 43.3 61.2 81.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 64.4 72.9 70.6 145.1 80.1 70.5 35.0 48.5 56.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 76.9 82.5 80.8 118.0 65.8 58.3 59.1 72.1 82.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 66.4 80.1 78.6 152.3 82.5 70.6 26.7 43.5 66.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 115.8 128.7 95.9 121.0 69.2 62.5 64.0 89.8 118.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 59.4 77.0 66.4 114.0 66.0 56.4 58.2 72.4 77.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------