***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 16.9 11.7 93.0 65.0 48.8 3.6 11.1 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.8 13.9 9.9 88.3 63.2 44.5 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.9 16.8 11.5 92.6 63.2 47.9 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 13.8 13.0 112.9 71.5 48.8 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 16.5 12.2 110.8 70.4 51.5 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.9 13.5 16.0 129.8 71.7 49.6 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.8 22.2 10.2 87.9 61.9 45.2 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.2 26.7 14.3 113.4 67.3 51.6 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.5 17.0 12.7 102.9 67.9 52.5 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 18.1 14.7 103.0 63.4 50.3 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.8 13.5 11.4 118.0 70.2 49.7 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.4 12.0 121.1 71.2 51.1 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.0 10.3 13.2 126.7 71.3 49.4 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.0 17.0 14.4 86.8 59.1 47.7 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.9 12.3 11.2 124.8 73.7 46.7 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.7 12.3 125.1 71.5 50.0 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.0 13.2 10.8 91.1 64.1 45.4 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.3 18.0 104.9 62.4 52.7 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.8 10.1 89.1 63.4 44.2 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.5 17.4 18.4 116.7 66.1 55.8 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.6 11.7 94.1 65.1 49.7 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.1 17.8 11.3 93.6 66.4 46.9 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.2 14.3 10.8 90.4 63.0 44.7 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.3 15.7 14.7 97.7 62.7 51.4 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.1 13.7 103.4 66.7 49.4 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.5 14.6 10.4 128.6 70.4 48.2 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.3 17.7 13.2 97.6 65.5 49.2 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.6 14.1 12.6 122.2 73.2 48.7 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.4 21.3 18.7 109.5 62.3 54.1 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.6 12.7 10.5 92.8 64.0 45.9 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------